Wall Street banks are sky-high about SpaceX, but investors remain cautious

Dan Ives, independent technology strategist and advisory board member at Zeta Global, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss SpaceX.

Wall Street banks have high hopes for SpaceX but at the moment shares of Elon Musk’s rocket market appear to be earthbound.

Many of the investment firms that underwrote SpaceX’s initial public offering issued their first research notes about the company Tuesday, and almost all recommended that investors buy the stock and forecast it to trade above US$200 in the next 12 to 18 months.

But after topping US$200 in its first week of trading, the stock is trading around US$152 per share, just above where it opened on June 12, its IPO day. Investors may be looking cautiously at the same factors that have Wall Street so enthusiastic about the stock.

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Analysts are focused on SpaceX’s potential to lead the market for space transportation and infrastructure. The company’s reusable rockets allow it to transport people and cargo into Earth’s orbit and it is aiming for deeper exploration of the solar system. Most of the company’s revenue currently comes from its Starlink satellites, and AI innovations are expected to advance that technology.

“SpaceX’s ambitions, and potential impact on humanity, are bigger than any company’s we’ve ever seen,” said a analysts from J.P. Morgan, in a research report.

The bank expects the stock price to reach US$225 by the end of 2027. It cited the company’s competitive advantage in space transportation, with about 670 orbital launches and a nearly 99% success rate with its Falcon rockets. Most payloads launched into orbit since 2023 were through SpaceX.

The company has dominated the reusable space rocket market with its Falcon 9, but its gigantic Starship rocket is the key to launching bigger pieces of cargo, including data centers.

Investment bank Raymond James is by far the most optimistic. Its analysts expect the stock to eventually reach US$800 per share and consider SpaceX a key industrial company for the 21st century.

“Just as railroads, electric grids, and the Internet reshaped prior economic eras, we believe SpaceX is building the foundational platform for the next generation of industrial capacity,” the analysts wrote in a research report.

SpaceX founder Elon Musk decided to take the company public because it needs money to fund its ambitions, including putting more satellites and eventually data centers into space. It’s more ambitious goals include establishing a colony on Mars.

For now, Starship is still in the test phase and no technology exists to put data centers in space or send people to Mars. Wall Street analysts acknowledge that a delay or failure to establish a steady schedule of launches for Starship is a risk that could torpedo their forecasts.

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SpaceX ended its first day on Wall Street in June with a market value of more than US$2 trillion and is still sitting around that level. That made Musk the world’s first trillionaire, though his net worth has since fallen back below US$1 trillion, according to Forbes.

A few banks on Wall Street are more cautious about the company’s prospects. Equity research firm MoffettNathanson said it sees the potential, but has given the company a more “neutral” rating and sees the stock eventually sitting at US$131 per share. The concerns are over many of the unknowns related to regulatory issues, technology and demand.

“It is, in short, a bet on any and all things made possible by a virtual lock on rocket manufacturing and launch,” MoffettNathanson said in a report.

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Damian J. Troise, The Associated Press