Liberals lead Conservatives by 4 points on final day of election campaign: Nanos

Playing null of undefined

CTV News Channel LIVE

Security clearance debate was a ‘made up thing’ by Trudeau to push back against Poilievre: Mulcair

‘President Trump is trying to break us’: Carney

Poilievre pledges to scrap single-use plastics ban

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announces his party’s platform for Quebec

What a body language expert thinks about the image each leader portrayed at the debate

CTVNews.ca has exclusive polling data throughout the federal election campaign by Nanos Research. The last day of CTV News and Globe and Mail’s tracking will be today (April 27) with the final election call survey released at night.

The Liberals have a four-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 36, the final day of the federal election campaign, with voters heading to the polls on Monday.

A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research conducted on April 24-26 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives, who are at 39 per cent nationally.

The New Democratic Party is at eight per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).

Regional support

Liberals are ahead in the Atlantic region, Ontario and Quebec while Conservatives remain dominant in the Prairies. B.C. remains an “absolute toss-up between the Conservatives and the Liberals,” said Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.

In Ontario, the Liberals went from a double-digit advantage early in the week to just six and they’re at 48 per cent versus the Conservatives at 42. The NDP is at seven.

The Liberals maintain a strong lead in Quebec and are at 41 compared with the Conservatives at 22. The Bloc Quebecois is in second place at 26 per cent.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain far ahead with 56 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 33 for the Liberals. The NDP is at nine.

In B.C., the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 39 per cent. The NDP is down a few points at 14.

• Full coverage of federal election 2025

The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region remains strong at 58 per cent versus 34 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP remains far behind in the region at five per cent.

Who is preferred prime minister?

When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney has a 14-point advantage, with 49 per cent choosing him over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is at 35 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains a distant third at five per cent.

By gender and age

A gender breakdown shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Forty-nine per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 31 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Thirteen per cent of women back the NDP.

Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 37 per cent, compared with 47 for the Conservatives. Seven per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.

The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 has narrowed with 44 per cent of those surveyed backing them versus 39 for the Liberals, who have gone up several points in this age category. The NDP has gone down from 13 per cent in the last tracking report to seven per cent now.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are ahead among middle-aged voters 35 to 54, with 44 per cent support versus 39 for the Liberals. Seven per cent would vote NDP.

The Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-one per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 35 for the Conservatives. Five per cent in that age category chose the NDP.

Methodology

CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 24 to 26, 2025, n=1,291, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. A double daily sample was conducted on Saturday, so 50 per cent of the three day rolling average is comprised of interviews conducted on Saturday. Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography.