Heat, smoke and tropical storm updates

A hot and sunny forecast for the Maritimes then the latest developments when it comes to Atlantic tropical storms.

A high-pressure system keeps the Maritimes hot and dry through the end of this week. Thursday sees little wildfire haze but may return Friday and Saturday. Tropical Storm Dexter continues to move northeast towards the northern Atlantic while two other areas are being watched for storm development over the next several days.

Hot and dry

Unless there is a substantial chance in the general weather pattern over North America there is unlikely to be any significant rain in the Maritimes for at least the next several days.

High pressure keeps conditions mainly sunny through Saturday. Temperatures are also set to rise through that period.

High temperatures in the mid-to-high 20’s can be expected Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Coastal areas will be in the low-to-mid 20’s where sea breezes are present.

The fire danger rating is assessed as high-to-extreme across most of the region. The exception being a moderate rating in the northwestern area of New Brunswick. Fire bans, activity restrictions and mandatory/voluntary water usage restrictions have been issued.

Wildfire smoke

The high-pressure system that has moved in from Quebec has bottled up, for the time being, wildfire smoke in southern Ontario and New England preventing it from moving over the Maritimes.

Modelling for the movement of the smoke indicates that those areas as well as parts of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Ontario will be most impacted through Friday. The same modelling then shows that a faint, high haze of the smoke could move over northern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and eastern Nova Scotia on Thursday. More high haze possible over the Maritimes late Friday into Saturday.

It is very likely that in the case of the Maritimes the haze will be high enough not to impact air quality.

Tropical Storm Dexter and areas being monitored for development

Tropical Storm Dexter strengthened overnight as it continues to move northeast with the maximum sustained winds coming up to 85 km/h near the centre of the storm. Dexter is forecast to become a post-tropical storm and move into the north Atlantic by this weekend with no impact to weather in the Maritimes.

Two separate areas are being monitored for possible tropical storm development. One over the eastern tropical Atlantic is being given a 60 per cent chance of development over the next seven days. The path of that system is likely to move it towards a position east of Bermuda before starting a turn to the north.

The second area off the US southeastern seaboard. That area being given a 40 per cent chance of development over the next seven days. Some long range computer guidance has suggested that if a system does form there it could move to a position south of the Maritimes by Sunday. The same scenario then moves the possible storm east of the Maritimes without coming directly through.

Neither area poses a direct risk of inclement weather to the Maritimes as of Wednesday. Both areas will be monitored in the event there is change in that outlook.