The escalating global trade war has countries and industries looking for solid markets – and safe harbours.
That could benefit ports in the Maritimes, as some major shipping lines consider re-routing vessels that move exports.
One aspect that is clear is that much of the future is uncertain.
“The whole world trading economic order is being upset,” says Andrew Abbott, the CEO of ACL (Atlantic Container Line). “If everything goes through the way it’s going through now and nothing changes, the stock market is going to continue to go down.”
Headquartered in New Jersey, ACL has called on Halifax since 1967, marking the first port of entry in North America and their last stop out.
Two-thirds of the cargo coming into the Maritime port makes its way to the U.S. Midwest, with only about 10 per cent of goods staying in the Maritimes.
“There’s been really no change in Canadian imports or exports. It’s been flowing normally,” says Abbott. “The U.S., on the other hand, we’ve been seeing a lot of what they call ‘frontloading,’ in other words, importers and exporters are stocking their shelves in expectation of something bad to happen.
“The surge we’ve seen in the first quarter of the year, which is much stronger than in the last four, is still going on, but we’re expecting it to just drop off a cliff,” he says.
There’s some optimism that shipping firms might avoid calling on American ports, which could lead to increased traffic in the Maritimes.
“I think that is a distinct possibility,” says Craig Bell Estabrooks, Port Saint John’s president and CEO. “With the huge asterisk that a global downturn and recessionary headwinds could put a damper on that.”
That’s because the biggest concern is the threat of a global recession.
“There’s just no question ports are impacted. If we look back at the last global recession in 2008-09, the amount of volume that gets shipped around the world will decrease should there be a global recession. That’s not unique to the Port of Saint John; that’s pretty much everyone.”
The shipping community is hoping to take advantage of the current desire for Canada to do more business with markets beyond the U.S., if they haven’t already sought other opportunities.
“The best time to start is now,” says Jenifer Bartman, a business advisor and former venture capitalist. “I wouldn’t wait on that, because I think that we’re going to be in turmoil for a little while.”
In a brief statement to CTV News, the Port of Halifax says it’s a “gateway port for international trade” and that it’s too early to say what impacts will be felt from tariffs.
