Where to watch for thunderstorms Thursday night, update on Tropical Storm Erin

CTV Atlantic meteorologist Kalin Mitchell has details of where thunderstorms are possible in the Maritimes through Thursday night.

The heat in the Maritimes continues to break as a cold front moves through. A risk of thunderstorms will extend into Thursday night for parts of Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin continues to strengthen in the central Atlantic.

Risk of thunderstorms

Thunderstorms rumbled through northern areas of New Brunswick on Wednesday with a few isolated thunderstorms occurring in other parts of the Maritimes Wednesday night.

The heat and humidity has primed conditions for thunderstorms in the Maritimes this week. All that was needed was a trigger to start setting them off and that trigger is the cold front moving in from the west.

Thunderstorms during high fire danger are a mixed blessing. The rain associated with them is certainly welcome, but lightning is the second leading cause of wildfire ignition. It is entirely possible that the fire that has resulted in evacuations in the West Dalhousie area of Nova Scotia was ignited by lightning activity over the last two days.

Thunderstorm activity early Thursday afternoon will be restricted to southern New Brunswick. By late Thursday afternoon there will be a risk of thunderstorms there as well as western P.E.I. and southwestern Nova Scotia. The highest risk of thunderstorms on Thursday evening and night will be in P.E.I. and Nova Scotia.

Rainfall amounts from this weather system will be restricted to only up to a few millimetres in showers. Localized rain totals of 20-to-40 mm are possible where thunderstorms move directly over.

Tropical Storm Erin

Tropical Storm Erin continues to strengthen in a favourable environment of warm ocean waters and light winds over the central Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds near the centre of the storm are now estimated to be near 95 km/h.

Erin is forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 165 km/h as it near the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean early Saturday morning. The storm is then expected to veer north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic as it becomes a major, Category 3 hurricane Monday into Tuesday of next week. That is the extent of the long-range forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center as of Thursday afternoon.

It is too early to properly assess whether there will be any risk to the Maritimes late next week from this storm. At the end of the current forecast, the area the storm could be located within extends from near the Bahamas to closer to Bermuda. That is a large, large area and gives a lot of uncertainty as to where the storm could move after that. A location closer to Bermuda would increase the chance of the storm moving north and east without approaching Atlantic Canada. A location closer to the Bahamas would be of more concern as the eventual north and east movement of the storm could take it closer to Atlantic Canada. We should have more certainty in the possible path northward of the storm by Monday.