'Secret' RCMP report forecasts a bleak future in Canada

An RCMP tactical vehicle drives past the Parliament buildings, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022 in Ottawa. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)

A "secret" Royal Canadian Mounted Police report paints a dark picture of Canada's future.

Obtained through an access to information request, the heavily redacted document outlines troubling trends to prepare for in Canada, including climate change, misinformation, government distrust and a global recession.

"The global community has experienced a series of crises, with COVID-19, supply-chain issues, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine all sending shockwaves throughout the world," the report's introduction states. "The situation will probably deteriorate further in the next five years, as the early effects of climate change and a global recession add their weight to the ongoing crises."

Published in 2023, the declassified report quotes French President Emmanuel Macron on "the end of abundance" and notes that future economic forecasts are "bleak."

"The coming period of recession will also accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations," the nine-page report predicts in a section titled "Popular Resentment."

It goes on to state that "many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live."

"The fallout from this decline in living standards will be exacerbated by the fact that the difference between the extremes of wealth is greater now in developed countries than it has been at any time in several generations," the report adds.

The report also includes sections on "Erosion of Trust," "Paranoid Populism" and "Effects of Climate Devastation."

"Law enforcement should anticipate that these destructive weather patterns will affect all facets of government, including damage to critical infrastructure, increasing pressure to cede Arctic territory, and more," the report cautions. "Law enforcement should expect continuing social and political polarization fueled by misinformation campaigns and an increasing mistrust for all democratic institutions."

A section on the "Arctic" warns that Northern Canada will experience the effects of climate change sooner than the rest of the country.

"Shrinking polar icecaps are providing access to untapped raw materials and new paths for transportation," the report explains. "This new opportunity for profit is causing several countries to expand their territorial claims in the area."

The report also highlights challenges posed by new and emerging technologies.

"Through such mechanisms as social media, the Internet of Things, and biometric identifiers, big data is and will increasingly be available on a scale that is difficult to quantify," it adds. "Access to this data will allow private entities to develop the means to exercise undue influence over individuals and populations at an unprecedented level."

Titled "Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends for Canada," the report was based on information compiled by the RCMP between June and October 2022. It was obtained through an access to information request and provided to CTVNews.ca by Matt Malone, an assistant law professor and government secrecy researcher at Thompson Rivers University in B.C.

Despite being based on "open source information," entire pages and sections are redacted in white.

In their response to Malone, the RCMP cited part 15 of Canada's Access to Information Act, which allows government institutions to withhold information that "could reasonably be expected to be injurious to the conduct of international affairs, the defence of Canada or any state allied or associated with Canada or the detection, prevention or suppression of subversive or hostile activities."

In a statement to CTVNews.ca, the RCMP said the report was written by the force's Federal Policing Strategic Management team in 2023.

"The Whole of Government Five Year Trends (2023) report was a forecasting exercise, based on a review of open-source articles and reports," the spokesperson said by email. "It was undertaken to provide Federal Policing managers with insight into anticipated changes in Canada's political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal circumstances, aiding in safeguarding Canada."

The last page of the report underscores the destabilizing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"In the wake of COVID-19, Canada's governments have normalized operating during a respiratory pandemic," it says. "But the damage to the economy and to the social fabric of the nation is ongoing, and there is an established opposition to existing and potential public health measures and other restrictions."

The final section – "Next Steps" – is completely redacted in white.

You can read the document here.