Alberta holding strong with tariff retaliation amid Trump’s ‘weaponized uncertainty’

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she's keeping sanctions, despite a pause on U.S. tariffs. CTV News Edmonton's Chelan Skulski reports.

Premier Danielle Smith said on Friday her government will be staying the course on its trade war response despite a one-month pause on U.S. tariffs.

In a social media post, Smith said Alberta will be keeping tariff counter-measures in place until the U.S stops the imposition of tariffs in contravention of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

Smith said the U.S. also needs to answer questions about Trump’s Thursday tariff pause on CUSMA compliant goods and then his Friday musings threat to tariff dairy and lumber.

“Yesterday’s presidential executive order mandating the pause is unclear as to which goods it actually applies to and what legal forms and requirements will be needed to qualify,” Smith said.

“The Government of Alberta will therefore be moving forward with our Tariff response until these questions have been adequately dealt with.

“The repeated pausing and unpausing of U.S. tariffs is causing great investment uncertainty and market volatility right across North America, and continues to confuse Canadians and Americans alike.”

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On Wednesday, Smith announced Alberta’s plan to fight back against Trump’s tariffs, which came into effect Tuesday.

It included fulfilling government contracts with countries honouring Canadian trade agreements, stopping purchases of U.S. alcohol and video lottery machines, and launching a provincial “buy Alberta” campaign.

Economist Moshe Lander questions how effective those measures will be, and he fears some businesses may leave Alberta amid the economic uncertainty.

“Maybe Canadian businesses just decide to relocate,” Lander said. “While that might be good for their local business, it can be bad for what is left behind if its job losses or industries that service other industries now weakened.”

Trade expert Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary, said he’s feared a business exodus under Trump, given his “America first agenda” to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S.

“It’s a fear that became an alarm in November when (Trump) took the election,” Dade said. “This has been a clear objective of the economic populist group within the ‘America first’ movement, and certainly we’re seeing it become manifest.”

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Dade said all levels of government will need to be proactive in speaking to and working with businesses that may be tempted or pressured to move operations out of Alberta or Canada.

Provincial and federal government, he added, can no longer trust the U.S. to honour future agreements and leaders need to re-think the strategy for Trump’s remaining time and office – and whatever comes after.

“We are in for a generation of unprecedented change in the U.S. and the only thing that we can do is to get smarter about understanding that,” Dade said.

“Being clear about the threat from the U.S. now allows us to take more appropriate actions,” he added. “We’re no longer hoping that the Americans don’t take the actions we feared.

“Instead, we’re being proactive, planning for them and beginning to try and get ahead of what the administration in Washington can do.”

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In the meantime, Dade agrees keeping reactionary measures like Smith’s tariff response is the right move given the “weaponized uncertainty” coming from officials south of the border.

“The Americans are using this as an offensive trade negotiating weapon,” he added. “Given that and that the situation has not yet solidified, it makes perfect sense – almost common sense – to do what the premier is suggesting.”

If the Alberta government chooses to keep its trade-war response plans in place amid inconsistent timelines coming from the White House, it will join Ottawa and other provinces in pushing ahead despite the most recent rollback.

Smith has maintained that she will not support nor impose any export taxes on oil and gas, saying the decision is likely to invite retaliation in kind from the U.S.

She is scheduled to travel to Houston next week to lobby U.S. officials.

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski