Eric Ham: As Canada chooses its next prime minister, its weary neighbours to the south are watching very closely

U.S. political analyst Eric Ham weighs in on what we will likely see from Donald Trump as Canada enters a federal election.

Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress and writes for CTVNews.ca.

After serving as its leader for more than a decade, Canada’s political wonderboy, Justin Trudeau, has exited the world stage. His ignominious end came amid a bruising and debilitating battle with America’s newly-elected commander-in-chief, convicted felon and twice-impeached president, Donald Trump.

Incessant trolling, bullying, vituperative threats, and finally an on-again-off-again trade war have taken their toll on both nations, not to mention, the political standing of the two leaders themselves. However, now that Trudeau has waged his final (for now) battle and bowed out gracefully, Ottawa enters a new era. Newly-minted Prime Minister Mark Carney has made his debut on the world stage to persistent questions about his ability to chart a new less caustic and divisive relationship with the mercurial wannabe American strongman.

Carney also has the unenviable challenge of fighting wars on two fronts – a trade war with the United States, and a battle at home to keep his prime ministerial position. As Canada is about to be plunged into a snap general election, it remains to be seen whether Carney will be the victor after a fast-and-furious five-week campaign; or whether it will be Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre who Canadians choose to lead the country in the midst of a battle with its once-friendly neighbour to the south.

President Trump’s quixotic trade war—that saw aluminum and steel tariffs rise 10 and 25 per cent respectively—has sparked a massive sell-off of the financial markets. Additionally, the trade imbroglio has upended the entire business sector domestically and abroad.

Canada, shaken but unbowed, has flexed its considerable economic prowess by withholding electricity; implementing reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. goods into Canada; and even going for the jugular by reviewing (some) contracts with darlings of Washington defence contractors.

How will Canada’s new leader deal with Trump?

Still, it is unclear if Ottawa’s new leader can diplomatically assuage Trump’s manic and destructive bent to see the United States’ closest trading partner and ally implode. Judging by the former reality television star’s recent comments, it is unlikely a new face will be enough. During a sit-down with Fox News, Trump excoriated Canada and accused the Great White North of being “…one of the nastiest country’s to deal with…” He shockingly went even further saying the sovereign nation was “meant to be the 51st state…”

The animus the Trump White House has for Canada clearly has not dissipated since Trudeau’s exit. In fact, the U.S. president has already weighed in on the upcoming election, suggesting he would prefer dealing with the Liberal party over the Conservatives. Still, it remains unclear if America’s “stable genius” political preferences will move the needle for voters in the upcoming Canadian elections.

What is clear is that Carney’s ascent to the top political spot has not tempered the disinformation being spewed by the American president, nor has it calmed his calamitous aims to make it a U.S. state. And like any entity that becomes the slavish desire of rudimentary misguided strongmen, Ottawa would do well to worry as Trump’s craven eagerness to make trouble for Canada will be the priority for the duration of his chaotic and macabre tenure.

However, like his political soulmate, Vladimir Putin, Trump failed to account for the fervour and spirit Canadians would exude and foster amid his wanton attempts to strip them of their independence. Seeing their nation, their culture, their very identity perennially under assault everyday, Canadians have stood tall and proud against the unceasing attacks lobbed from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Trump underestimated Canada’s reaction

Moreover, in Putin-fashion, underestimating the many levers and tools at their disposal, America’s inter-dependency on Canadian goods, workers, and supply chain has given America’s tin-pot authoritarian an eye-opening awareness of the outsized influence the once-close ally wields. A power unleashed through reciprocal tariffs and other measures enacted even as the libelous and convicted fraudster haphazardly and clumsily stumbles into an economic downturn of his own making.

In this wake, Canada’s elections have taken on a new tone and tenor. The forthcoming vote is now much bigger than navigating economic and social dexterity but demonstrating a political pugilistic acumen to maintain independence and sovereignty against a nihilistic madmen who only sees joy in destruction.

The elections will undoubtedly test the political prowess and nimbleness of the current prime minister. Moreover, this moment offers a unique opportunity for the next prime minister to showcase his brand of leadership as the nation faces an existential threat from the south. The fate of the 150-year-old relationship between the two North American anchors is not just at stake but so is one nation’s very being.

It has been said many times over that elections are about the future. That sentiment could not have more meaning as voters seek to determine its path forward; its political posture; and above all, how it will choose to stand. President Trump will be an overarching theme as candidates and the electorate begin the delicate and complex process of shaping its next steps. The U.S. commander-in-chief will continue to preen; he will continue to threaten; he will continue to castigate. All making for an intense and anxiety-laden campaign cycle. Nevertheless, a polarizing and ominous threat can be a galvanizing force and perhaps this force will unify a nation to speak with one clear and unmistakable voice.

Since coming down that gilded escalator nearly a decade ago, Trump has amplified America’s political polarization. That shining city on a hill is now gripped by paralysis, ineptitude, and of course, chaos. The once grand experiment that was American democracy is now a tragic global reminder of the perils of politics undergirded by fear and retribution.

Canadians will do well to heed the many pitfalls that have now engulfed the United States. Therefore, this election, more than anything, will be revelatory. The most recent vote in America showcased a nation still struggling to throw off its long-held vestiges of racism and misogyny.

What will the forthcoming elections reveal in Canadians? Whatever the outcome, it is unclear it will be enough to produce a reset with America. In fact, the process and the outcome could very well exacerbate the already fractious and acerbic break between the two countries.

One thing, however is certain, a weary and disheveled nation is watching, hoping against hope that its neighbour to the north can show that a different course exists.