It’s a two-horse race that appears to be tightening, according to nightly tracking numbers from Nanos Research, which also show large gender and age divides forming among likely voters.
Forty-one per cent of respondents between 18 and 34 say they plan to vote Conservative, compared to 37 per cent who plan to vote Liberal. For those over the age of 55, 50 per cent plan to vote Liberal compared to 36 per cent for the Conservatives.
“Mark Carney tracks quite well when it comes to perceptions related to how he might manage the bi-national relationship (with the U.S.) and that particular issue trends very strongly among voters who are older than 55 years of age,” says Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
On the flip side, Nanos says younger voters are more likely to be concerned with the cost of living, jobs and the economy.
“Pierre Poilievre has been very strong on the cost of living and that’s what young voters are worried about,” Nanos says.
The Conservative leader has owned the affordability issue for the last two years and appeared poised to handily win this election three months ago, but U.S. President Donald Trump launched a trade war and began musing about annexing Canada, and Mark Carney replaced the deeply unpopular Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.
“There are two competing ballot questions right now and we don’t know which one will win by the end of the election,” says Nanos.
Another demographic divide emerging is among men and women voters.
“The Conservatives are firmly in the driver’s seat when it comes to male voters,” says Nanos. “On the other side of the equation, the Liberals have a significant advantage among women.”
When it comes to preferred prime minister, 53 per cent of women prefer Carney versus 28 per cent for Poilievre.
“The gender gap is a real, persistent problem for Pierre Poilievre, and I think frankly it comes down to performance,” says Scott Reid, CTV News political commentator and former advisor to Liberal prime minister Paul Martin.
“Many observe that in his manner, in his presentation it is edgy, it is barbed wire and it is very steely. He is going to have to think about not just what he has to say but how he says it.”
The Trump issue
While the Conservatives continue to talk about cost-of-living and affordability, the campaign has begun to shift its message to include a sharper focus on Trump and the ongoing trade war. Conservatives say it’s a challenging campaign for all parties when so much oxygen is being sucked up by the White House.
“For Conservatives, I think they need to take the message of change, talk about difficulties in affordability and complete the sentence in how we are going to get through this (trade war), rather than try to change the channel,” says Conservative strategist Jamie Ellerton. “Because all anyone wants to talk about is Donald Trump.”
Trump is another reason why this election has morphed into essentially a two-party race, with the NDP, Bloc Quebecois, Green Party and Peoples Party of Canada polling well behind the Liberals and Conservatives.
“Progressive voters form part of the pool of accessible voters for the Liberals and they are moving over to the Liberals in droves,” says Tom Mulcair, former leader of the federal NDP, who adds the Liberals are polling particularly well in Ontario and Quebec.
“The Liberals will run the table in areas (of Quebec) where they haven’t had a seat in years,” he says. “That’s because they see in Mark Carney someone who can take care of their greatest concern which is the effect on the Quebec economy and Donald Trump.”
But with roughly seven per cent of voters undecided, Nanos notes there is still a lot of campaigning left to do, including two debates next week.
“The French debate is going to be a pressure cooker for Mark Carney,” Nanos says. “The big question is… how will Quebeckers and Francophones respond to his performance, and will it be good enough for him to hold onto Quebec? Because Quebec is basically the cornerstone for Liberal support. If Quebec unravels for the Liberals, it’s going to be bad news for Mark Carney and good news for Pierre Poilievre.”
