As the federal election campaign unfolds in the Waterloo Region, the parties are all trying to win voter turnout as they pitch themselves as the best to protect Canadians against the threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.
To summarize the results in southwestern Ontario after the last election in 2021, the Liberals won the more urban ridings, while the Conservatives won the more rural areas, and the Greens took Kitchener Centre.
But one political scientist believes not much may change after voters go to the polls on April 28.
“This is not a normal election,” said Andrea Perrella, an associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University. “We’re not just talking about issues and leaders and policies.”
The campaign is happening under the shadow of threats to Canadian sovereignty.
The shift, from what appeared to be an easy Conservative win to the Liberals now showing up strongly in the polls, is largely due to what Perrella says is the Trump factor.
He says during times of fear, voters tend to seek stability.
“I think it’s less the Liberal Party more than they are the incumbent,” he said. “And when you’re facing a crisis or a threat, there is this moved safety and there is this reluctance to change.”
As for the local ridings, Perrella says he’ll be keeping an eye out on election night, adding that Kitchener-Conestoga is high on the list where Liberal MP Tim Louis will be running again.
He says it’s a riding that’s been won by just a few hundred votes the last few elections.
“This is one riding that can go either way, because it is a rather unusual district. It geographically looks like it’s mostly in a rural area, but it also includes pockets of Kitchener. And there are a lot of urban voters there, so it’s a seat that can go either way.”
He says Kitchener Centre is another area of interest.
Mike Morrice won the riding in 2021 for the Greens and is running again too.
“I expect Mike Morrice to hold on to Kitchener Centre,” Perrella said. “I mean, he has been very effective and very involved in the community. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Kitchener Centre voters will continue to support him.”
While a number of candidates are already in place and campaigning, candidates can be nominated up until April 7.
A list of who is running in the local ridings for the four major parties can be found on here.
