Food prices could be the first to go up as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s retaliation, say Montreal experts.
Quebec companies and consumers are bracing for impact, with a potential trade war set to start Tuesday.
“Fruits and vegetables, for example, at the grocery store, are highly reliant on U.S. suppliers and they’re perishable,” Concordia University economics professor Moshe Lander says. “So, next week, next month, we could see those prices pass along.”
And it’s not just grocery costs that could climb, says the Institut du Quebec’s executive director, Emna Braham.
Home appliances, furniture and clothes could be affected, too.
Braham’s research organization says those are the U.S. imports targeted by the first phase of Ottawa’s strategy to hit back.
The good news, Braham adds, is that important industrial imports like mineral oils and car parts have been spared by Canada’s response, at least until the second phase.
“Québécois businesses won’t have to face higher input prices, won’t have to reduce margins, or pass the bill to final consumers in this first wave,” Braham says.
‘It’s going to fuel inflation'
But one industry bracing for immediate impact is lumber.
Trump’s tariffs set to start Tuesday will add to pre-existing duties already straining the sector, says Jean-Francois Samray, the CEO of the Quebec Forestry Industry Council.
“The entire supply chain is really optimized,” Samray says. “So, it’s a close link. And by putting some pressure, there’s a risk.”
Plus, the U.S. president ordered an investigation into wood imports this weekend that could lead to even higher levies.
Samray says U.S. families will face soaring construction costs, with Quebec wood helping build homes across the country.
“It’s definitely going to increase prices, it’s going to fuel inflation, and it’s going to decrease the capacity of purchasing for American families.”
He adds that looking forward, Quebec companies can create opportunities, to source even more wood from local suppliers.
