Good candidates key to Tory success in north, political expert says

Political scientist on Poilievre’s chances to win A political scientist from northern Ontario says the federal Tories now view northern ridings as winnable.

A political scientist from northern Ontario says momentum is building across Canada for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Northern Ontario is no exception.

David Tabachnick said in the last two elections, Conservatives have made inroads in several ridings in the northeast.

"He's signing up members undoubtedly and with that goes contributions to his campaign,” Tabachnick said.

“A Nipissing riding or another riding in northern Ontario could go Conservative so I do think they have some thoughts here that this more than just a stop in to say hi.”

He said the timing is right for the party to make those inroads. The Liberals have been in power since 2015, there are several areas across the region that are struggling economically. Tabachnick it’s natural for people to look for alternatives.

Having the right people nominated in each riding will be important, he said.

Anthony Rota Political scientist David Tabachnick says the key to winning is finding candidates who can beat poular incumbents such as Nipissing MP Anthony Rota, seen here at a funding announcement Thursday. (Eric Taschner/CTV News)

"I think that having a strong Conservative candidate in our riding hasn't been the case perhaps for a little while so that's a big deal, as well,” Tabachnick said.

“Our current Liberal MP here (Nipissing) Anthony Rota remains very popular. He's the Speaker of the House, of course, he has just recently made some funding announcements in our region, so he's well aware and very experienced about what the next election will be about.”

As far as the rural/urban split facing the region, Tabachnick said Poilievre's message will have to be geared to a broader audience in the north.

"So on the one hand we need big government spending, which is more associated with a centre-left party like the Liberals or the NDP, rather than the sort of more conservative, entrepreneurial-minded policies that we have traditionally associated with the Conservatives,” he said.

“Even though people have a tendency in these ridings to say 'let's be individuals and have personal responsibility and cut taxes,' which is a traditional Conservative position, it doesn't practically add up to how are economies function in our contemporary world.”

After Timmins and Sault Ste. Marie, Poilievre continues his northern Ontario tour with a rally and press conference in Sudbury on Thursday evening and a rally on Friday in North Bay.