Conservatives still frontrunners but ‘hemorrhaging’ support to Liberals: Nanos survey

Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle look at the different factors that have forced Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to find a new strategy.

The federal Liberals are making significant traction at the expense of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, according to the latest Nanos Research ballot tracking released Tuesday.

“We do this every week, (and) what’s clear is that Conservative support is now hemorrhaging to the Liberals,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.

“If you remember back just before Justin Trudeau stepped down, the Conservatives had a whopping 27-point advantage,” he said. “(It) was like 47-20 for the federal Conservatives.”

Nanos, who’s CTV News’ official pollster, added that when the Conservatives were riding high at 47 per cent, not all of that support likely came from Conservative supporters.

“There’s probably a lot of Liberals in that group,” he said, “but what we’re seeing is a significant shift where now the ballot numbers are 38-30 between the federal Conservatives and the federal Liberals.”

Nanos pointed to shifts in a few key voting blocs which also contributed to the recent rise in Liberal support.

“One of them is women,” he said. By the end of 2024, Nanos said his data shows many women had deserted the Liberal Party, but they started to come back over the past few months.

He said another reason the Liberals have picked up support is that their numbers are up in the province of Quebec.

“Quebec is usually their regional base. If they don’t do well in the province of Quebec, they can’t wage war in other parts of the country and have a chance to win,” said Nanos, adding that in recent months there’s been negative pressure on Conservative support in the province.

“This doesn’t mean that the Conservatives … won’t hold on to the seats that they have in the province of Quebec. But it’s just a little bit of movement away from the Conservatives and towards the Liberals in Quebec,” he said.

Issues of concern for Canadians

As of Feb. 7, Nanos tracking also found a drastic change in the issues of concern to Canadians, with a major increase regarding tariffs and the U.S. president.

“Canadians are increasingly focused on tariffs and Donald Trump,” explained Nanos, adding that both Trudeau and his Liberal government, as well as Liberal candidates seeking the leadership, are focusing on how to deal with the U.S. president. He attributes that focus to the sudden rise in support for the Liberals.

“I think it’s important to put on the table that last year, Pierre Poilievre was a bit ahead of the curve -- focusing on people struggling to pay for the groceries and struggling to pay for the rent and the mortgage and stuff like that and the cost of living -- and he caught the Liberals flat footed,” said Nanos. “And that’s when the numbers really started to move positively for the federal Conservatives.”

According to Nanos, Poilievre found success in 2024 through a three-pronged approach of attacking Trudeau, attacking the Liberal government and declaring himself and the Conservatives as agents of change.

“For all intents and purposes, Justin Trudeau is no longer the leader of the Liberal Party and also (the Liberals), at least the candidates who are vying for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada, are kind of throwing policy overboard and throwing the last 10 years overboard to try to be a little more relevant than they have been in the past,” he said.

Nanos said Poilievre needs to take a selective approach and focus on issues of immediate concern for most Canadians, if he wants to expand his lead.

“I think for Poilievre, he’s got to catch up in terms of focusing on tariffs. I’m not sure Canadians are worried about Arctic sovereignty,” said Nanos, referring to a trip the Conservative leader took Monday to Iqaluit to announce his promise to bolster Canada’s Arctic defence. “If steel, aluminum, our energy sector (are) under threat, jobs are under threat, I think that’s probably what they want to hear more about from Pierre Poilievre.”

Nanos stressed that despite the Conservatives losing ground, they’re still ahead by eight points and Poilievre is still the person most likely to win an election and become the next prime minister, if an election were held today. But, added Nanos, “what we do know (is), an election won’t be held today.”

For the complete podcast, watch the video at the top of this article, or listen in the player below.