A new study from the University of Colorado at Boulder (CU Boulder) has predicted that Kenyan runner Faith Kipyegon could soon be the first female to hit the four-minute-mile, with improved aerodynamic drafting and pacing.
The study, conducted by CU Boulder professor Rodger Kram and his team, found that with the right strategically timed and placed pacers, Kipyegon is “on the brink” of breaking the four-minute-mile record, according to a new release by the study.
“If everything went right, under a couple of different drafting scenarios, she could break the four-minute barrier,” said Shalaya Kipp, one of the study’s co-authors and an Olympic middle-distance runner who earned her master’s degree in Kram’s lab.
‘Exploring the limits of female human performance’
In 2016, Kram’s lab figured out what it would take for a man to break the two-hour marathon barrier.
They determined that drafting - running behind or in front of another runner to reduce air resistance, along with intense training, state-of-the-art shoes and an ideal course and weather conditions, was key.
Nike hosted the Breaking2 Project in May 2017, which was informed by some of Kram’s research, to create those conditions for Kenyan marathoner Eliud Kipchoge.
Kipchoge missed his goal by a hair but nailed it in a similar race in Vienna two years later.
In 2023, Kram witnessed Kipyegon crush records for women’s 1,500 metre, 5,000 metre and the mile, in less than two months.
She beat the one-mile world record for women with a time of four minutes and 7.64 seconds.
Kipyegon was just three per cent shy of breaking the four-minute-mile, Kram realized.
This led to him gathering his former students, who were working at different research institutions around the world, to explore the limits of female human performance.
What is ‘drafting’?
Even on a still day, air molecules bump into you and slow you down as you move through them, the news release explains.
Running behind a pacer or with runners in the front and back can help you preserve your energy by using less of it.
“The runner in front is literally pushing the air molecules out of the way,” Kram states.
A runner of Kipyegon’s size must overcome a large air resistance force – about two per cent of her body weight, according to Kram’s team.
“Anyone from top elite to lower-level runners can benefit from adopting the optimal drafting formation for as much of their race as they can,” Edson Soares da Silva, first author on the new paper, said in the news release.
To put it in perspective, de Dilva calculated that a 125 lb, 5-foot-7 tall female runner who usually runs a 3:35 minute marathon could improve her time by as much as five minutes, the news release explains.
Closing the gap
To study Kipyegon, Kram’s team dissected the video of her record one-mile finish in Monaco.
Despite the ideal conditions, her pacers were too fast in the beginning, leading to the gap between them widening, Kram surmised. By the end of the lap, Kipyegon was on her own.
The best strategy would be to place one female pacer 1.2 metres in front, and another 1.2 metres in the back for the first half mile, he said, then metres later, another “fresh-legged” pair steps in and takes their place at the half mile point.
This could lead to shaving the air resistance by nearly 76 per cent, according to previous research.
Kram’s team calculated her projected finish time to be 3:59.37, the same as the first man’s who ran a mile in less than four minutes in 1954.
First human to run a mile in less than four minutes
Roger Bannister was the first person to run a mile in under four minutes at Iffley Road track in Oxford, England on May 6, 1954.
“Prior to Bannister, it was considered impossible—beyond the limits of human physiology,” Kram said.
“It was the running equivalent to summiting Mount Everest for the first time.”
