Ford’s PCs maintain double-digit lead over Liberals as campaign enters final stretch: Nanos survey

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives continue lead the Liberals by double digits with a little over a week to go until voters head to the polls, a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research shows.

The nightly tracking, which surveyed 929 Ontario adults on Feb. 15, 16, and 18, found that 45.8 per cent of decided voters support the PCs, compared to 29.7 per cent who support the Liberals. About 15.9 per cent of respondents said they would vote NDP and 6.7 per cent expressed support for the Green Party.

Among decided and undecided voters, 41.4 per cent said they support the PCs, 26.8 per cent said they support the Liberals, 14.3 per cent said they support the NDP, 6.1 per cent said they would vote for the Green Party, 1.9 per cent responded “other,” and 9.7 per cent said they were “undecided.”

“Progressive Conservatives hold onto double digit lead with less than 10 days left in the provincial election campaign,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist with Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey.

Since nightly tracking began on Feb. 6, Ford’s support among decided voters has remained very consistent, hovering between 43.8 and 46.4 per cent.

Doug Ford now has a 17-point lead over Bonnie Crombie as the preferred as premier of Ontario, the survey notes.

The survey says that 41.2 per cent of respondents said Ford was their top choice for premier, versus 24.4 per cent who said Crombie was their top pick. About 13.9 per cent said NDP Leader Marit Stiles was the best option to the lead the province and 7.5 per cent selected Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

While the PCs lead is all regions across the province, Toronto continues to be a tight race. About 36.9 per cent of respondents from Toronto said they would support the PCs, while about 34.8 per cent of Torontonians surveyed said they would vote Liberal. About 21.6 per cent said they could support the NDP and 4.6 per cent said they would vote for the Green Party.

The PCs have a significant lead across the Greater Toronto Area. When factoring in all areas of the region, the survey suggests that 54.9 per cent of GTA voters would cast their ballot for the PCs, compared to 26.3 per cent for the Liberals, 11.7 per cent for the NDP, and 6.4 per cent for the Green Party.

The Nanos Research tracking has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.