PCs lead in 4 out of 5 Ontario regions but battle for Toronto continues: Nanos survey

Nik Nanos from Nanos Research with the latest poll data in the Ontario election that shows the Liberals gaining momentum against Doug Ford and the PCs.

While Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives continue to lead in four of five Ontario regions, a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research suggests that no clear winner has emerged in Toronto.

In the survey of 900 Ontario adults, released Tuesday, Nanos found that the Liberals have now pulled ahead of the Progressive Conservatives in Toronto with 38.5 per cent support, compared to 37.6 per cent for Doug Ford’s PCs.

The gap has widened slightly in the GTA, with the PCs rising to 47.8 per cent support on Tuesday, compared to 36.6 per cent for the Liberals.

About 19.8 per cent of respondents in Toronto said they would vote for the NDP. Support for the New Democrats dropped to just 11.2 per cent when considering all GTA respondents.

Across Ontario, they survey found that about 44 per cent of decided voters said they support the PCs, compared to 32.3 per cent for the Liberals, 17.1 per cent of the NDP, and 4.6 per cent for the Green Party.

When considering voters who are both decided and undecided, the PCs saw 39.4 per cent support, compared to 28.9 per cent for the Liberals, 15.3 per cent support for the NDP, and 4.1 per cent for the Green Party. About 1.8 per cent of respondents selected “other” when asked what party they support, and another 10.4 per cent said they had not yet made a decision.

“Doug Ford’s initial 16-point lead in the CTV News/Nanos tracking poll has narrowed to a 12-point advantage. Support for both the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) and the Liberals tends to increase with age, while backing for the New Democrats declines among older demographics,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the poll.

“The PCs currently lead in four out of five regions across the province.”

Ford continues to be the preferred choice for premier, with 40.4 per cent of respondents indicating that he would be the best leader for the job. About 25.1 per cent said Crombie would be their top choice for premier, compared to 13.7 per cent for Marit Stiles, and five per cent for Mike Schreiner.

As part of nightly tracking, commissioned by CTV News, Nanos Research conducts random interviews with a three-night rolling average of about 900 Ontario voters. Survey results released Tuesday included 920 Ontario voters who were interviewed between Feb. 8 and Feb. 10. The survey has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.