Ford’s lead over Crombie’s Liberals shrank since start of election campaign: Nanos survey

Nightly tracking results for Feb. 9, 2025. (Nanos Research/ Supplied)

Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford has seen his lead over the second-place Liberals shrink slightly since the start of the campaign, dipping from a 16-point advantage to 13, according to a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research.

The survey, released Monday, found that the PCs now enjoy about 44 per cent support from decided voters, compared to 31 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for the NDP, and four per cent for the Greens.

“With a margin of error of three percentage points, this shift is a trendline worth monitoring closely,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey.

Among all voters, including decided and undecided, 39.7 per cent said they support the PCs, 28 per cent said they support the Liberals, 17.1 per cent said they support the NDP, and 3.6 per cent said they may vote for the Green Party. About 2.2 per cent selected “other,” and 9.4 per cent said they were unsure.

“The political landscape in Toronto remains fiercely competitive between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals, while Ford maintains a stronger foothold outside Toronto,” Nanos added.

As of Feb. 9, the survey found that among Toronto respondents who were decided, 36.2 per cent said they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives in the upcoming election on Feb. 27. This is compared to 34.3 per cent who said they planned to vote Liberal and 24.5 per cent who signalled support from the New Democrats.

In the Greater Toronto Area, 48 per cent of decided respondents said they would vote for the PCs, about 10 percentage points higher than the number of respondents who said they support the Liberals, according to the survey.

Ford remains the top choice among respondents for preferred premier. As of Feb. 9, the survey found that about 39 per cent of respondents said they would choose Ford to lead the province, compared to 26 per cent for Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, 15 per cent for NDP Leader Marit Stiles, and five per cent for Green Party Leader Mike Schriener.

As part of nightly tracking, commissioned by CTV News, Nanos Research conducts random interviews with a three-night rolling average of about 900 Ontario voters. Survey results released Monday included 920 Ontario voters who were interviewed between Feb. 7 to Feb. 9. The survey has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Ford ‘pays too much attention’ to Toronto, Hamilton

Separate survey results from interviews conducted between Feb. 4 and Feb. 6 show that nearly half (about 48 per cent) of Ontarians believe the PCs pay ‘too much attention’ to voters in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.

The survey, which included responses from 904 adults in Ontario, found that sentiment was even stronger among people in northern, eastern, central, and southwestern Ontario, where six in 10 said Ford prioritizes voters in the GTHA compared to their regions.

Broken down, 63.7 per cent of respondents in southwestern and central Ontario indicated feeling this way while 64.7 per cent of northeastern Ontarians expressed that view.

The majority of those in the Greater Toronto Area, 41.5 per cent, also believe Ford spends too much time on their region. However, the majority of Torontonians (38 per cent) say the PC leader pays the right amount of attention to both voters in and outside of the GTHA.

Among all respondents, 28.8 per cent said the government pays the right attention to both, 18.3 per cent were unsure, and just 4.4 per cent felt Ford pays too much attention to voters outside the GTHA.

The random online and telephone survey is considered accurate within 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.