Progressive Conservatives gunning for Windsor West, the only NDP seat west of London

Ontario NDP candidate for Windsor-West Lisa Gretzky works at her campaign office in Windsor, Ont. on Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Dax Melmer

Lisa Gretzky is the last New Democrat standing west of London, Ont., surrounded by a sea of Progressive Conservative blue.

And now her Windsor West seat is under threat as the Progressive Conservatives target that region of southwestern Ontario in this election, hoping to complete the push that started years ago to turn union-backed NDP strongholds blue.

Gretzky remains confident despite changes to neighbouring ridings in the 2022 provincial election. She's held Windsor West since 2014, a riding that had been Liberal dating back to 1999.

Gretzky has a simple plan to stave off the PCs: sharing her story in order to connect with voters. She's lived through difficult times and rebounded. It's that story of redemption and caring for others that she believes will help her succeed.

She was homeless at 17 and lost a brother to an overdose six years ago.

"I see potential in everyone and I see opportunity to invest in the supports and services that they need in order to thrive," Gretzky said. "It was through other people believing in me and supporting me that I got to where I am today."

The PCs are running Tony Francis against Gretzky. The party declined requests to interview Francis and to discuss its plans for the region.

Gretzky said the main concerns she's hearing from voters are about the state of health care, housing, the affordability crisis and the threat of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, who is targeting Ontario's auto sector.

Windsor’s economy depends heavily on the region's automotive and manufacturing sectors tied to cross-border trade. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce recently listed Windsor among the cities that would be hardest hit by Trump's tariffs.

Like other candidates and party leaders, Gretzky has vowed to fight for her constituents and protect jobs in the face of this economic threat, which could directly affect her own household. Her husband works at the Stellantis auto assembly plant.

The Progressive Conservatives have been openly gunning for the Windsor West riding, before the snap election was even called.

After an NDP query about construction workers' unpaid wages during question period in mid-December, then-labour minister David Piccini unloaded on Gretzky.

"We're coming," he bellowed in the legislature. "This is her last Christmas in this place, potentially, because we're coming for that member in Windsor."

Premier Doug Ford cheered from his nearby seat.

Ford, the leader of the Progressive Conservatives, launched his re-election campaign in Windsor West in late January.

Using the Ambassador Bridge – which facilitates nearly 30 per cent of annual trade between Canada and the U.S. – as his backdrop, Ford touted himself as the only party leader who can guide Ontario through the turbulence of a Trump presidency.

But it was also a shot across Gretzky's bow.

A few days later, NDP Leader Marit Stiles made her own stop in Windsor.

"I’d love to see Doug Ford take on Lisa Gretzky," she said. "I've seen it in the legislature multiple times, and he's lost every single battle with her."

The PCs have been coming for seats in the region. In 2007, all ridings in London and every riding southwest of the city were Liberal, save for a lone blue seat in Sarnia-Lambton held by Bob Bailey.

In 2011, the largely rural ridings between London and Windsor turned blue under Tim Hudak, who led the PCs from 2009 to 2014.

The NDP flipped Essex, one of three Windsor-area ridings, that year. By the next election in 2014, the NDP completed the sweep of those three ridings.

In 2018, Gretzky won the Windsor West race with 52 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the PC candidate who pulled in 28 per cent and the Liberals trailing behind at 15 per cent.

But that election saw Ford take power and things began to change.

The gap between the NDP and the PCs narrowed in Windsor West by 2022, when Gretzky was re-elected with 42 per cent of the vote and conservative candidate John Leontowicz came in second at 35 per cent. The PCs took two neighbouring ridings, Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex, from the NDP in that election.

Insiders and pundits credit former Progressive Conservative labour minister Monte McNaughton, who represented the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex riding, for thawing relations with unions as part of his broader strategy to woo blue collar workers.

McNaughton said he and Ford devised a plan when he became minister in 2019 to "build the future of a new conservative party here in Ontario."

That future would be working class.

"The NDP and Liberals have abandoned working class people in this province," McNaughton said in an interview.

"They've become really focused on boutique social issues instead of things that matter to working people and Doug Ford has capitalized on that."

McNaughton pointed to a moment early in the COVID-19 pandemic, when the Ford government's public health measures forced businesses across the province to close.

Many were calling for more closures, including shutting down Ontario's construction industry that employs some 600,000 workers. So Ford and McNaughton got on the phone with labour leaders and figured out a way to keep the sector running by focusing on health and safety measures such as rotating smaller teams of workers on job sites, enforcing physical distancing rules and masking.

"These are good jobs with defined pension and benefits, and it's jobs and careers that people can build families around and that's how we made inroads to communities like Windsor and Hamilton and Thunder Bay and others," he said.

"And we're going to see more of that in the next week when the election results come in."

A number of trade and construction unions have endorsed Ford for premier this year, including several locals in Windsor. The Windsor and District Labour Council is still endorsing all NDP candidates in the region.

Voters in the area are very pragmatic, said Lydia Miljan, a professor of political science at the University of Windsor.

"They prefer having their representatives in government, and they do tend to switch their vote to that of who is more likely to form government," she said.

But a recent development may cement Gretzky's chances. The Liberal candidate for Windsor West, Moe Chehab, dropped out of the race on the day of Elections Ontario's deadline for nominations, which came in the middle of the campaign.

"Since the riding was always a race between the PCs and NDP, the loss of a Liberal candidate might be enough to keep it in NDP hands," Miljan said.

The snap election Ford called is set for Thursday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 22, 2025.

Liam Casey, The Canadian Press