Demand for housing in Winnipeg to slow down: report

A home for sale in Winnipeg. (Jamie Dowsett/CTV News Winnipeg)

Demand for housing in the Prairie markets, including Winnipeg, is expected to slow down over the next few years, according to a new report.

On Wednesday, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its 2025 Housing Market Outlook, which found that diminishing population growth in the Prairies will have an impact on housing demand.

The report explained that population growth has been strong in the Prairie markets over the last few years, driven in part by affordable housing. However, growth is expected to slow due to changes in immigration policy, which will have an even bigger impact on British Columbia and Ontario.

According to the CMHC report, which was put together by a team of economists, Winnipeg’s housing market is expected to see a gradual growth in prices and new construction. The report predicted vacancy rates will slowly increase but remain below historical averages, which will lead to strong rent growth in 2025.

Unlike other Prairie markets, housing sales in Winnipeg fell to-pre-pandemic levels in 2023, according to the report. The CMHC expects sales to return to a “modest but steady growth,” while price growth will be slower in Winnipeg than other Prairie cities.

The CMHC also forecasts that government funding, the removal of PST on new rental housing, and the absence of rent control on newly constructed units will support rental development in Winnipeg. In contrast, it predicts single-detached construction will slowly decline in favour of multi-family housing construction.

The report added that the purpose-built rental supply increased at a “dramatically” fast pace last year, while vacancy rates remained low. It predicts that vacancy rates will increase gradually over the next few years but will remain below historical averages.

Impact of tariffs

According to the CMHC, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats pose a risk to the Prairie economies and housing markets, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

It explains that the oil and gas sector is significant to the Prairie economies, adding that oil prices are expected to drop due to weaker global demand and reversal in supply cuts.

“Weaker performance in the oil and gas sector (possibly due to tariffs) is a significant downside risk to the outlook for Prairie markets, especially in Calgary and Edmonton,” the report says.

The full report can be found online.