What could happen in Winnipeg during the federal election?

A Winnipeg political scientist said there has been a massive shift in political support ahead of the federal election. Danton Unger explains.

A new poll shows support for the federal Liberals and leader Mark Carney has skyrocketed in Winnipeg and Manitoba - a movement that has caught one political scientist by surprise.

A new Probe Research poll commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and released on March 21 shows support for the Liberals in Manitoba had climbed from 19 per cent in December to 44 per cent today.

In Winnipeg, the jump was more severe - from 24 per cent to 54 per cent.

“I have never seen a swing like this in Canada in such a short time,” said Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor in political studies at the University of Manitoba.

“(Pierre) Poilievre was on his way to a minority or also a majority government when we looked at the polls in November, December. We had no idea that there’d be such a change.”

Adams said the change in polling can be linked to two things - Justin Trudeau stepping down on Jan. 6 and U.S. President Donald Trump’s talk about tariffs and making Canada the 51st state.

“(It) has suddenly galvanized Canadians around the flag, and that’s meant a different story than a few months ago when we were talking about, ‘Is Canada broken’ or ‘are we better off before than we are now?’ ‘How much do we like the prime minister?’ Those sorts of things have faded away, and we’ve now got new issues on the front burner.”

Looking back a few months ago, Adams said it appeared the majority of Winnipeg would turn blue once a federal election was held, but now that may not be the case.

“With the surge for the Liberals, there are a lot of ridings which really are in play.”

He points to Winnipeg West as one to watch. The riding formerly known as Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley has been under Conservative control since 2019 with Marty Morantz as the MP. Doug Eyolfson held it for one term between 2015 and 2019 for the Liberals.

With the Liberal surge, Adams wonders if it’s enough to flip it red again.

People should keep an eye on Winnipeg South, he added. That has been Terry Duguid’s and the Liberals’ riding since 2015.

“It flips every time when the government flips, so that’s a bellwether riding. And as Winnipeg South goes, so goes the nation,” said Adams.

Winnipeg South Centre and Winnipeg Centre are two other ridings that Adams will be paying attention to on election night.

Canadians will be heading to the polls on April 28 to vote in the next federal government.

- With files from CTV’s Danton Unger