Baltic nations count final hours to ending electricity ties to Russia

A screen near the Energy Museum and Mindaugas Bridge indicates that on Feb. 8, 2025, the Baltic States will disconnect from the Russian electricity grid to synchronize with Continental Europe, in Vilnius, Lithuania, Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

VILNIUS, Lithuania — Nearly 3 1/2 decades after leaving the Soviet Union, the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania this weekend will flip a switch to end electricity-grid connections to neighboring Russia and Belarus — and turn to their European Union allies.

The severing of electricity ties to oil- and gas-rich Russia is steeped in geopolitical and symbolic significance. Work toward it sped up after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine three years ago, battering Moscow’s EU relations.

“This is physical disconnection from the last remaining element of our reliance on the Russian and Belarusian energy system,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda told The Associated Press in a recent interview.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and other dignitaries are expected at a ceremony on Sunday as a specially-made 9-meter (29.5-foot) tall clock in downtown Vilnius counts down the final seconds of the Baltic states’ electricity ties to Russia.

Chilly ties since the fall of the Soviet Union

The Baltic countries, which are all NATO members, have often had chilly ties with Russia since declaring independence from the USSR in 1990 — and relations soured further over Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Sixteen power lines that used to connect the three Baltic states with Russia and Belarus were dismantled over the years as a new grid linking them with the rest of the EU was created, including underwater cables in the Baltic Sea.

On Saturday, all remaining transmission lines between them and Russia, Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad — a Russian exclave wedged between EU members Poland and Lithuania and the sea — will be switched off one by one.

Then, for 24 hours, the Baltic Power System will operate solo in an “island operation mode.” The next day, the power system is set to merge with the Continental European and Nordic grids through several links with Finland, Sweden and Poland.

The Kaliningrad region, which has no land ties to mainland Russia, already relies on its own power generation, according to Litgrid, Lithuania’s electricity transmission system operator.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the disconnection plan was announced in advance by the Baltic countries and the Russian energy sector had taken preparatory steps to ensure smooth operation on its side.

“Those plans were announced long time ago, and they required certain actions by our and their electric companies,” Peskov told reporters. “We have taken all necessary measures to ensure reliable and uninterrupted operation of our unified energy system.”

Risks of troublemaking?

The three Baltic countries, which together share a 1,633-kilometer (1,015-mile) -long border with Russia and Belarus, officially informed Moscow and Minsk of the disconnection plan in July. Their national transmission system operators credited 1.2 billion euros ($1.25 billion) in EU and other support to help the countries synchronize with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.

“Lithuania has done a lot in the last 30 years to disconnect, to become independent,” Nausėda said. Three years ago, “we stopped buying any kind of energy resources from Russia. It was our response to the war in Ukraine.”

Despite the advance notice, the Baltic nations are still on watch for a possible response from their former Soviet partners.

“The risk of cyberattacks remains substantial,” Litgrid said last week, adding that continued vigilance, collaboration, defensive steps and “robust” cybersecurity measures were needed to effectively mitigate potential threats.

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa warned Wednesday of possible provocations, but said Latvia was well-prepared and services including the armed forces and national guard were stepping up their vigilance and security measures.

“Clearly there are risks, we understand that very well. But the risks are identified and there is a contingency plan in case these risks materialize,” Siliņa said.

After the disconnection plans were announced, propaganda campaigns cropped up on social media and in printed leaflets in city streets that issued fake-news warnings about blackouts, severe energy shortages and sky-high energy bills for consumers.

“We heard those rumors, but we are used to such things already” said Jolanta Karavaitienė, a retired teacher, in central Vilnius. ”Of course we must disconnect from them. Given the geopolitical situation, I see no reason for us to be there (in the Russian grid).”

Still, some in the region were taking precautionary measures.

Estonia’s public broadcaster ERR has reported surging sales of generators. Home appliance chain Bauhof sold dozens more generators last month compared to January a year ago, and rival Ehituse ABC had to limit their purchases the report said.

A long road toward energy independence

The Baltic countries’ steps toward energy independence have been decades in the making.

In 2003, prior to joining the EU, Lithuania decided to shut down the Soviet-built Ignalina nuclear power plant in response to concerns in Brussels over its safety. It was decommissioned in 2009.

Lithuania built an offshore oil terminal in the Baltic Sea in 1999. Seven years later, it became the country’s sole crude oil import point after Russia’s surprise move to halt supplies of oil to Lithuania through Russia’s vast Druzhba pipeline network.

Rokas Masiulis, the CEO of Litgrid, said Lithuania has “suffered a great deal” because of Russian actions in the past, such as through halting oil supplies and jacking up prices for gas that his country once depended on.

He said Lithuania today has “much more than we need” in terms of electricity capacity, from both fossil fuels but also increasingly solar and wind. “So we are safe,” he said.

The disconnection with Russia “is neither bad for them, (nor) bad for us,” Masiulis said. “We were sort of interconnected and interdependent on each other. Now we will just part our ways.”

The three Baltic countries have rebuilt power lines and launched a vast construction and reconstruction program to turn their networks away from Russia and toward the West, the Litgrid CEO added, calling it a technological feat.

“Actions by Russia -- by them being aggressive and pushing their neighbors -- has really helped us,” Masiulis said. “Maybe we’ve suffered a little with oil prices, with gas prices, but we were forced to act. So we built alternative routes.”

“Now we’re in much better state than we were before,” he added. “So maybe they wished us ill, but ultimately everything worked very well for us.”

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Associated Press writer Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report.

Liudas Dapkus, The Associated Press