Prediction markets about the 2026 midterm elections have surpassed US$1.4 billion in trading volume as Election Day fast approaches, according to a new CNN analysis. This year has seen massive growth in the prediction industry, where people can bet on real-world events like sports, entertainment and the weather. While small-scale election markets have been around for a while, they gained traction before the 2024 presidential election and have seen huge numbers for the 2026 midterms. Kalshi, the biggest U.S. prediction company, has seen nearly $1.1 billion in trading volume on markets related to the midterms, according to a spokesperson. This includes markets about individual race outcomes, turnout numbers, prominent endorsements, whether candidates will debate, what will be said at campaign rallies and much more. Its rival Polymarket has seen more than $340 million in trading volume on midterm-related markets, a spokesperson told CNN. This includes trading on Polymarket’s U.S.-facing platform as well as its offshore site that’s popular with international users. “It’s sizable,” said Dustin Gouker, an industry expert who writes a newsletter about prediction markets. “It’s still much less than sports and crypto markets, but it’s a lot of trading. And it’s valuable. It’s a meaningful signal that provides probabilities that aggregate polls and public sentiment.” Gouker said trading is expected to significantly ramp up on Election Day, as professional bettors try to cash in on volatile changes in the markets while polls close across the country. Still, as with gambling, most people who trade on prediction markets lose money. The prediction frenzy has scrambled U.S. political culture, with campaign staffers and donors obsessing over the odds. Federal regulators have pledged to crack down on insider trading related to the midterms, and Kalshi has already suspended six 2026 candidates for improperly betting on their own races. Trading volume does not measure how much money has been wagered on a specific market. These figures capture the overall economic activity, in terms of how much money has changed hands before the market have been closed. CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. But CNN editorial employees aren’t allowed to trade on prediction markets. ‘A completely new ball game’ PredictIt, which bills itself as the “original political prediction market,” has been around since 2014. The company declined to provide dollar figures for its 2026 midterms trading volume, but co-founder John Aristotle Phillips said business has been growing because of the favourable regulatory climate. The Biden administration took action against PredictIt and separately tried to shut down election markets in 2024. But PredictIt prevailed in court, and other federal courts ruled that election markets are permissible under federal law. The Trump administration has since embraced the industry and is finalizing new rules that protect election markets. “There’s a hunger for information,” Phillips said. “Once the legal pathway is clear, as to how Americans can be allowed to spend a little bit of their own money to make forecasts, I think that’s going to be a good thing for everybody.” Smaller companies are similarly seeing a boost, and some are trying to enter the U.S. market before the 2028 presidential election, which has already drawn major betting. ForecastEx, which is owned by Interactive Brokers, has seen more than $6.4 million in trading volume in markets about the midterms, a spokesman told CNN. A UK-based prediction market, Smarkets, has seen about $200,000 in trading about the midterms among its British customers. It’s currently in the process of securing regulatory approval from the Trump administration to operate in the United States. “It’s a completely new ball game,” Smarkets founder Jason Trost said. “It’s different this year because it’s legal and it’s widely available. Most of the money in prediction markets is sports. A small sliver is elections. But there’s a lot of interesting data you can get out of it.” Marshall Cohen, CNN
