Days after Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed he studied the risk of U.S. military action against Canada, a former advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump said it can’t be ruled out. Anthony Scaramucci, who famously served as Trump’s communications director for 11 days in 2017 and has since become one of his loudest critics, said Trump is such a “wild card” that it would be “imprudent for Mark Carney not to contemplate that.” “It’s not zero. I mean, it should be zero. It should be minus, but it’s not zero,” Scaramucci said in an interview with CTV Power Play with Mike Le Couteur on Friday when asked about the potential risk of U.S. military action on Canada. Scaramucci’s comments come after Carney told The New York Times this week that he was preparing for the “extreme tail risk” that military action could be ordered against Canada as Trump threatened to make Canada the 51st state. “Extreme tail risk” is a financial term, referring to a rare and highly unlikely event that would cause catastrophic damage if it happened. Speaking to The New York Times, Carney said it wasn’t a base case, but he added that “it would be irresponsible not to (prepare).” Since the start of his second term in office, Trump has said annexing Canada with military action is “highly unlikely,” but in January 2025, the president did muse about using “economic force.” Scaramucci, who has a personal relationship with Carney that has spanned decades, told Le Couteur that when you consider Trump was “flagging the provinces of Canada with the American flag,” he understands why the prime minister would have a conversation about the “insanity” of possible military action. The former White House communications director also described Trump as “nuts.” Carney has not spoken to Canadian media since his interview with The New York Times to clarify his comments. On Thursday, Defence Minister David McGuinty told reporters in Ottawa that it’s “normal” to plan for risk scenarios. “All militaries in the world spend time analyzing risk scenarios,” McGuinty added. ‘Nightmare scenario’ for Trump if no trade progress after October Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. remain stalled after negotiations fell apart in the eleventh-hour last month, with both sides blaming one another and imposing new tariffs on each other. The day after trade talks fell through, Carney said Canada was “at war” with the U.S. “You’re at war when you get attacked. We got attacked,” Carney said on Aug. 22 when speaking about new 50 per cent American tariffs being imposed. Despite that, Carney has recently said he remains in contact with Trump. U.S. Trade representative Jamieson Greer, meanwhile, told American TV network CNBC on Friday that there is “no urgency” for the U.S. to strike a trade deal with Canada. Greer also said his team is still having “good conversations” with Canadian officials even after trade talks broke down in August. Asked about Greer’s comments in Moncton on Friday, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said he’ll be speaking with his American counterpart later today. “(Greer’s comments are) very consistent with the conversations I’ve had with him over the last number of weeks. He and I have had probably a couple of conversations a week since the negotiations were interrupted over a month ago,” LeBlanc said. Speaking to Le Couteur, Scaramucci says a lack of a trade deal could leave Trump vulnerable politically, especially with the U.S. midterm elections coming up in November. “I just think it is a political suicide mission on the part of the president,” Scaramucci said. “If he wants to put at risk those northern states, which are highly contested states like Maine, Ohio, and Michigan, then stay on course.” “It would behoove the president from a political rationality perspective to get that deal done pretty quickly. If he’s going to wait till after October 1, he’s going to be in a nightmare scenario economically,” Scaramucci later added. This fall, Trump will face a big test during the U.S. midterm elections. The midterms happen midway through a four-year presidential election cycle and could change the balance of political power in Washington. Multiple American polls currently show Trump with the lowest approval rating of his presidency.
