New research suggests climate change could leave Canada’s forests increasingly vulnerable to pests and disease in the coming decades, while a federal climate report projects a sharp increase in the area burned by wildfires across the country. A federal government report warns average temperatures in Canada could rise by at least 3.5 C by the end of the century, even if the world achieves net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, researchers at the University of British Columbia say climate change is expected to increase pest and disease damage across much of North America’s forests. The UBC study found more than 80 per cent of the forest area examined could experience higher levels of damage by the middle of the century. “Climate can influence the performance of both trees and the pests,” said Dr. Zihui Wang, a researcher in UBC’s Department of Botany. “For example, the warm winters can help those pests survive in place. At the same time, the heat and drought can put trees under more stress.” Wang said stressed forests can become more susceptible to insect outbreaks and disease, while dry and weakened trees can also create conditions that increase wildfire risk. “The dry wood would provide a good opportunity for fires,” Wang said. “So absolutely, there would be a strong link between these two events.” Researchers say an increase in wildfire activity is also likely to lead to more smoke, affecting air quality in communities across British Columbia. According to Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, B.C.’s geography can make smoke particularly persistent. “Because of the valley nature across British Columbia, the smoke tends to settle in those valleys and really drive up those smoke hours,” Lang said. Environment Canada defines a smoke hour as a period when visibility is reduced to 10 kilometres or less because of smoke. Data from Environment Canada shows Penticton recorded 376 smoke hours in 2018 and 354 in 2017. The city has logged 302 smoke hours so far in 2026. Kamloops recorded 541 smoke hours in 2021, compared with 449 in 2017. The city has recorded 305 smoke hours so far this year. Lang said smoke often lifts during the day as temperatures rise, improving visibility, but changing wind conditions can also spread wildfire smoke and intensify fire behaviour. Experts say there is no single solution to reducing future impacts, but forest management and early monitoring of high-risk areas could help communities adapt to a changing climate. “Forest managers can monitor those areas more closely and make a decision earlier,” Wang said.
