Ten years on, Brexit still divides Britain and casts a pall over its economy

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson addresses his supporters prior to boarding his General Election campaign trail bus in Manchester, England, Friday, Nov. 15, 2019. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, Pool, File)

LONDON — Ten years ago, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum that forges political identities to this day and that shattered a half-century project to get closer to the continent.

Brexit, short for British exit, became a reality on June 23, 2016, when 52 per cent — or more than 17 million people — voted to leave the EU. Though the margin was narrow, the vote led to the most dramatic shake-up of the U.K. economy and society since World War II.

But like any divorce, the paperwork and process of completing the breakup was not swift: It took nearly five years.

Brexit was born out of a growing sense of frustration not only with the EU but over the global financial crisis of 2008. Supporters were able to tap into that frustration, and argued that the U.K. on its own, would be revitalized and able to focus just on domestic priorities.

Opponents warned that Brexit would lead to an economic disruption and that it risked the country’s standing in the world.

A decade on, here is where Brexit stands.

Brexit ushered in a harsh economic reality

Backers of Brexit — commonly known as Brexiters — held out a vision that the British economy could thrive outside the EU by harnessing the buccaneering spirit that had once made it the world’s biggest.

Though the COVID-19 pandemic and the wars in Ukraine and more recently, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran have not helped, it’s clear that the British economy has not been revitalized.

Merchants have complained about the hurdles that they now have to clear when trading with their European neighbours — the 27-nation EU remains by far the U.K.’s biggest trading partner.

And though there are no tariffs imposed on British goods entering the EU, there is a raft of non-tariff barriers, such as cumbersome customs paperwork, border certifications, and visa restrictions. Many of the trade deals that the Brexiters touted, most notably one with the United States, have not materialized.

Experts say the British economy is between 4 per cent and 8 per cent smaller than it would have been had the country voted to remain in the EU. That would translate to much higher living standards and billions more pumped into public services, including the cherished National Health Service, which was promised an extra 350 million pounds (US$468 million) a week by Brexit campaigners. That pledge was emblazoned on their big red campaigning bus.

“Brexit has made the U.K. economy smaller than it otherwise would have been,” said Jonathan Portes, professor at King’s College London.

“The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity,” he wrote in an article for The UK in a Changing Europe think tank.

Brexiters argue, however, that leaving the EU is not something that can be judged in the short-term — there was always going to be a short-term economic disruption in return for greater control over an array of policy levers, including on migration.

The uproar over immigration is escalating

Brexit put an end to free movement between the U.K. and EU, but securing Britain’s border has had mixed outcomes. Getting a grip on immigration was a key promise of the Brexiters — their message of taking back control resonated.

Though net migration — the difference between those entering the U.K. and those leaving in any one year, from Europe — has plunged, it has soared from non-EU countries. That’s partly because of changes in visa rules that the previous Conservative government introduced to help out sectors that desperately needed migrant labour, such as workers to care for the elderly.

Overall though, there are signs the government is getting a grip on who can and cannot enter the country legally. Net migration has fallen sharply, from more than 900,000 in 2023 to 171,000 last year.

Though net migration is down, many are angered by migrants entering the country illegally — specifically the sight of people, often escaping war zones such as Afghanistan and Sudan, arriving on British shores in inflatable boats after making the dangerous journey across the English Channel.

The uproar over the number of small boat crossings, which peaked at 46,000 in 2022 and reached 41,000 last year, has become one of the main top political issues despite being a fraction of overall migration. Anger has focused on asylum seekers, often housed at public cost. Unruly mobs have protested outside and even tried to set fire to some hotels housing asylum seekers.

Voters have expressed remorse

In the years since Brexit, Britain’s political landscape has fractured, with declining support for the two long-dominant parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservatives were ejected in 2024 after 14 years in power, much of it dominated by wrangling over U.K.-European relations.

The Labour government hasn’t impressed either and Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks like he will be announcing his resignation very soon.

Millions of voters are being tempted by Reform U.K., led by Nigel Farage, who perhaps more than any other politician campaigned for Brexit. His party has led in almost every opinion poll for more than a year.

At the same, there’s a growing feeling in the country that Brexit has failed.

According to two polls from Ipsos, 52 per cent of people in the U.K. would like to rejoin the EU while 33 per cent are against it. The pollster also found that 48 per cent think Brexit is going worse than expected against just 9 per cent who think it’s going better. Also, Ipsos found that 48 per cent would back another referendum today on the U.K.’s membership of the EU against 27 per cent who oppose one.

A reset would be complicated

Against this backdrop, the Labour Party has walked a tightrope since being elected in 2024. Having explicitly ruled out reversing Brexit — or even rejoining the EU’s frictionless single market — it hasn’t got a huge amount of political space to maneouver.

Starmer has sought a “reset” of ties following the distrust built over the years of the Brexit negotiations, largely centred around making trading easier. He is hoping to announce further measures at a summit with the EU next month — provided he’s still the prime minister.

His most likely successor, Andy Burnham, tempered his language on the U.K. rejoining the EU while out on the campaign trail over the past month, ahead of his victory in a special election on Thursday that saw him beat back a challenge from Reform in a seat that overwhelmingly backed Brexit.

“I am not proposing that the U.K. considers rejoining the EU,” Burnham said. “I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it is going to undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy if we don’t respect that vote.”

Associated Press writer Jill Lawless in London contributed to this story

Brian Melley And Pan Pylas, The Associated Press