HONG KONG — Early signs suggest China ’s biggest online shopping event is struggling to persuade anxious consumers to spend more, despite discounts. The Singles’ Day festival, a major discount campaign comparable to Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the U.S., centers on Nov. 11. But it begins weeks earlier and is seen as a barometer of the broader economy. Retail data platform Syntun said cumulative sales as of Oct. 31 totalled just over one trillion yuan (US$154 billion), broadly in line with the same period last year. Retailers have increased sales mainly by extending the festival. Total Singles’ Day sales in 2025 reached a record of almost 1.7 trillion yuan (US$254 billion). Consumer demand in China remains subdued, however, as a prolonged property downturn and other pressures weigh on confidence. “Optimism over a recovery in domestic demand has faded,” said Max Zenglein, Asia Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board. “Improvements in sentiment have repeatedly proved short-lived.” E-commerce giants such as Alibaba have turned to artificial intelligence to encourage frugal shoppers to spend more. Alibaba integrated its Qwen AI into its Taobao and Tmall platforms to help shoppers place orders and find products. Plans offering AI tokens are also being prominently promoted during Singles’ Day for the first time. This month, a livestream by Li Jiaqi, dubbed the “Lipstick King” for his huge lipstick sales, sold plans covering roughly two trillion tokens within half an hour, according to Chinese media. Singles’ Day originated as “Bachelors’ Day,” a celebration of being single. The nationwide shopping festival began in 2009 and now targets everyone. Consumers feel pinched While China’s broader economy continues to grow at a relatively robust pace, expanding 4.6 per cent from a year earlier in January-September, much of that momentum came from a boom in exports. Retail sales of consumer goods rose just 1.1 per cent over the same period. China’s vast domestic market has struggled as a yearslong real estate downturn has left households feeling less wealthy. Home prices have fallen roughly 20 per cent or more from their 2021 peak, with smaller cities and the resale market seeing steeper declines. Although home prices appear to be stabilizing in larger cities, many homeowners remain concerned they could fall further, said Andy Rothman, founder and CEO of the advisory firm Sinology. In the southern furniture manufacturing hub of Foshan, 24-year-old Gabby Liang said she was feeling cautious. “I’ve been buying much less online, especially when it comes to non-essential items,” she said. “During the Singles’ Day festival last year, I bought quite a bit of skincare products. But this year I expect to buy fewer.” Other shoppers are also reining in spending. “I’m perhaps not as keen on pursuing famous or high-end brands as I used to be,” said Beijing resident Kong Min, referring to this year’s Singles’ Day. Middle-class Chinese consumers have lost confidence, and many festival discounts are less generous than they once were, said Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai. More shoppers are experiencing “discount fatigue,” said Yaling Jiang, founder of market research company ApertureChina. With discounts available year-round, Singles’ Day may be losing its power to boost spending, she said. “Looking at what Singles’ Day originally was: a shopping festival where people used to expect the largest discounts of the year,” she said. “That is not true any more after it was extended to multiple platforms, then to a monthlong thing.” Liang, who works in furniture sales, said extras such as cameras and game consoles were off her shopping list this year. “We’re undergoing a consumption downgrade,” she said. “Even the amount that we earn has somehow been downgraded.” Domestic demand remains weak as exports soar Business has stalled as Chinese shoppers tighten their belts, Liang said, despite rising exports to markets such as the Middle East and Africa. An oversupply of goods, from cars and TVs to shoes and other electronics, has intensified competition in China’s crowded domestic market, pushing manufacturers to expand overseas. Exports overall surged 35 per cent from a year earlier in October, driven by high-tech products such as semiconductors and electric vehicles. China is on track to surpass last year’s record trade surplus of US$1.2 trillion. Domestic demand for big-ticket items, including cars and some luxury goods, has been particularly weak. Passenger car sales in China have fallen for most of this year, dropping almost 25 per cent in January-September, according to industry data. The decline partly reflects cuts to government subsidies. That contrasts sharply with a 71 per cent jump in passenger car exports over the same period. Luxury spending has also weakened. LVMH, whose brands include Louis Vuitton, Dior and Fendi, and Kering, which owns Gucci, Balenciaga and Saint Laurent, both reported softer demand in China in recent months. Chinese leaders have pledged for years to accelerate growth in domestic demand. But strong exports have reduced the urgency of introducing policies to stimulate spending at home, analysts said. “As long as China continues to make progress on its industrial and technological ambitions, policymakers have little incentive to fundamentally rebalance the economy toward household demand,” Zenglein said. Bright spots remain as status symbols shift Not all retail categories are struggling. Health, lifestyle and experiences are increasingly becoming status symbols for Chinese consumers. “It’s not a simple case of big-ticket items falling,” said Jacob Cooke, CEO of Beijing-based consultancy WPIC Marketing + Technologies. Health-related products are selling relatively well, he said. According to WPIC data, online sales of imported fish oil rose nearly 43 per cent from a year earlier in the 12 months through September. Sales of other supplements aimed at improving sleep or supporting joint and bone health grew between 28 per cent and 37 per cent. Cooke expects some growth in this year’s Singles’ Day sales. ApertureChina’s Jiang described this year’s defining consumer trend as “just living life,” with people moving away from grand gestures and focusing on “the bare necessities and internal fulfillment.” Many families are holding back as youth unemployment hovers around 18 per cent and income growth lags. Yet China’s household savings remain vast. With a population of 1.4 billion, the country has enormous spending potential, even as consumer preferences and spending patterns shift. Zenglein, the Conference Board economist, sees growing divergence in Chinese consumption, with pockets of stronger demand amid subdued overall sentiment. “It’s still enough to make a living, but there’s just not much extra to splurge,” said Liang, the furniture sales worker in Foshan. Chan Ho-him, The Associated Press
