Too soon to call recession, rules Canadian authority on economic downturns

Prime Minister Mark Carney tours a home manufacturing facility in Ottawa on Monday, June 1, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

OTTAWA — The unofficial authority on recession calls in Canada says it’s too soon to use that word to describe the sluggish economy.

Debate has raged on Parliament Hill over whether the country is in a recession since Statistics Canada reported last week that the economy shrank for two quarters in a row.

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The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council is traditionally viewed as the arbiter for calling a recession in Canada.

The council says in a bulletin today that two quarters of declining GDP in a row are not sufficient to call a recession and urges caution over reading too much into the recent data.

The group of economists argues weakness in Canada’s economy is not yet widespread or persistent enough to warrant the recession label, and the marginal decline in the first quarter of the year will be subject to revisions in the months ahead.

Over the past week, the Conservatives have laid the blame for a “full-blown recession” at the feet of the Liberal government, while Prime Minister Mark Carney argues growth will be uneven as the government tries to pivot the economy away from reliance on the United States.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 5, 2026.

Craig Lord, The Canadian Press