When Alberta announced it would hold a nine-question referendum on immigration, social programs and the constitution, some wondered why a question on remaining in Canada was left off. Two citizen-led petitions have taken place in Alberta since 2025, one supporting the province remaining, the other supporting leaving. Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canada petition asked Albertans, “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?” Mitch Sylvestre’s Alberta Prosperity Project asked Albertans, “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become and independent state?” “The question that they’re going to be voting on in October is neither of those questions,” said political scientist Brendan Boyd from MacEwan University. “Neither of those groups are actually particularly happy, because their petition, the question that they put a petition on, is not what the actual referendum is on. So, that’s one thing. The second thing is that it’s not a yes or no question.” The question being put to Albertans is in addition to the nine proposed government questions. It asks: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Voters will have to select one of two options: Option 1: Alberta should remain a province of Canada, or Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada. “It’s a little bit tricky, in a sense,” Boyd said. “It’s a question of whether you want the province to ask itself the question.” “I think the big choice here is do you want separation to be at the forefront of the government agenda, the public agenda, for the next who knows how long?” Boyd adds that if there is support for the secession side, the province will have some work to do. “I think we need to keep in mind that this will take probably years, if the process continues on and continues on,” he said. “The government is asking, do we have a mandate? Or is there the appetite to use all our resources, time, energy, attention on this question of trying to move towards separation?” Ryan McKinnell is also a political scientist at MacEwan University. “Albertans tend to be of the view — some of it justified, some of that less so — that they’re put upon by Ottawa or that Ontario and Quebec sort of comes first,” he said. McKinnell says there will have to be a definitive majority one way or the other to truly move on from whether separation remains a political priority for some in Alberta. “If it’s 80/20 or 85/15 (remain), I don’t think it goes away,” he said. “When you get into Red Deer or rural Alberta, it starts going back to more 50/50. Outside the two big cities, I think no matter what it will remain.” McKinnell points to the Quebec referendum in 1980, where most people voted to remain, but the issue lingered. “60/40 wasn’t enough for it to go away,” he said. In 1995, Quebec was about 50,000 votes away from beginning the process of becoming its own sovereign country. The vote was 50.58 per cent to 49.42 per cent against secession. The Clarity Act, created by Stephane Dion following that vote, and the 1998 Supreme Court of Canada secession reference, could be used here in Alberta, if Option 2 is voted on and the province puts forward the question of if Alberta should remain in Canada. “If this question is clear, then the House of Commons will see the question is clear and will give the Government of Canada the responsibility, if there is a clear majority, to negotiate the end of Canada in Alberta,” Dion said. “This will be extremely difficult to do. The will of secession needs to be there. Otherwise, people will change their mind, and negotiators will have to stop the negotiated secession because people want to stay in Canada.” Dion says there is no threshold to what constitutes a clear majority. “You don’t come with a threshold, in abstraction, you look at the result when you see it,” he said “A referendum is a consultation, and you assess the result when you see it.” Dion adds that there needs to be a clear will of the people to look at considering leaving confederation. “You cannot negotiate that if you don’t have this certainty, that is what the people want,” he said. “If we go, to a referendum on secession, then, it means practically the breakup of the country. If it’s the case and if there is a secession, the breakup of the country, and the end of the federal responsibility within the province, in this case, Alberta, the government of Canada needs to be sure that it’s what Albertans want to stop to be Canadian, to get out of Canada, to not be part of Canada anymore, to make an Alberta an independent country.” He says the federal government should be involved in convincing Albertans to remain a part of Canada. “During the current referendum, I think the federal government should be involved,” Dion said. “Albertans will vote, but all Canadians will be affected.” Alberta vs. Canada In High River, two neighbours living next door to one another have very different ideas on how Alberta should look moving forward. Janet Isbister, who is supportive of Alberta becoming independent, has covered her home in Alberta flags and signs that say, “Send Ottawa a Message.” “I’m very interested in Ottawa giving us what we need. We give them what they need, so we need what we need,” she said. “My mother, who’s no longer with us, she was definitely pro-Canada. And you know what, she was entitled to that. I’m like my father; pro-Alberta — and all we want is fairness.” Isbister’s neighbour Mary Jane Strate is in support Alberta remaining in Canada. “I think the country needs to be together, work together,” Strate said. “It’s been happening. I think it’s good for Canada.” Despite their differences politically, both get along. “We get along great,” Isbister. “It’s a democracy; we’re allowed to want what we want.” Slade says the pair are friendly, but they don’t discuss politics. “We’ve never talked about it, because I thought if she said anything to me, I would say, ‘Well, if you don’t like it here, move,’” Slade said. “I love Alberta and I love the Alberta flag, but I don’t anymore now that it’s flying the way it is.” Premier Danielle Smith says if Option 2 is chosen by most Albertans, she expects the process for a second vote to take shape. “We are in the middle of a legal fight over the extent to which, or even if we have to consult with First Nations in asking this question,” Smith said. “We also have a Clarity Act, which says that the House of Commons has to approve the question. So, there’s a couple of legal hurdles.” Smith adds she will be voting Option 1, and hopes other Albertans will do the same. “We need direction as a government, are we going to invest in Canada? Put our differences aside, work on improving the things that have been causing grievances for Albertans and commit to that? Or are we going to go a different pathway with a binding referendum in a few months time?” The referendum is set for Oct 19.
