SaskPower rates could see stiff increases over the next 20 years, leaked memo says

The Saskatchewan NDP is claiming a leaked SaskPower memo is showing that power rates could rise 95% by 2040 as coal plants remain online.

An internal SaskPower memo, obtained by the Saskatchewan NDP, is showing just how much power rates could increase as the government extends the life of its coal fired power plants.

According to the documents released by the NDP Wednesday, the memo was submitted to SaskPower’s audit and finance committee Nov. 5, 2025 by Gregg Milbrandt, VP of asset strategy and planning.

“In absolute terms relative to rates in 2025, the average cost of electricity is projected to be 20% higher in 2030 and 95% higher in 2040, without carbon tax,” the memo states.

NDP MLA Aleana Young called the leaked memo “scathing.”

“This memo was the smoke alarm going off while the dumpster fire of this cover-up burned narrowly away in Scott Moe’s office,” she told reporters during a news conference.

“Clearly, the hard working officials at SaskPower tried to warn the government. They tried to warn them this $26 billion plan was spiraling out of control into a full blown financial disaster.”

• Sask. NDP raises concerns over SaskPower’s long-term rate projections
• ‘Flawed and inflated’: Electrical workers union refutes NDP coal plant cost claims

Saskatchewan’s six coal-fired generating units at the Shand, Boundary Dam and Poplar River power stations were originally mandated to shut down by 2029, in keeping with federal regulations at the time.

SaskPower has instead opted to refurbish the facilities and extend their lifespan to 2050.

The provincial government says the upgrades are part of a broader, long-term transition toward nuclear energy, including the potential development of small modular reactors (SMRs) or a large-scale nuclear facility.

When the plan was announced last year, the price tag was estimated at $900 million.

• Costs for refurbishing Sask. coal power plants estimated at $2.6 billion

The Saskatchewan NDP says new figures from SaskPower reveal it will cost about $26 billion over 25 years to extend the life of the province’s coal plants until it transitions to nuclear energy.

That includes $11.4 billion in capital costs, $13 billion in fuel costs, and $1.4 billion to rebuild transmission infrastructure already considered obsolete.

Refurbishment to take five years

The leaked memo outlined the details surrounding plant refurbishment.

“It is expected that designing, procuring and completing the life extension work for each unit will take approximately five years,” it said.

“The supply and delivery of major equipment, such as turbine and boiler parts, may require 36 to 48 months – and in some cases items like the generator step-up transformer – could take even longer.”

According to the document, extending the life of coal units by 25 years carries a “high” inherent risk level, though this could be lowered to a “medium” risk level by conducting thorough assessments of all major systems to ensure reliability after the extensions. It added that a reserve margin of 17 per cent will be retained.

The memo also said the plan poses medium-to-extreme risks for grid reliability, crown finances and regulation adherence.

“Relying on coal units that have had reduced investment leading up to their previously expected retirements may increase risk for simultaneous forced outages and frequency of forced outages,” the document’s risk assessment section warned.

“Life extending coal units by 25 years means some coal units will be operated for 75 years, well beyond the original design life.”

Possible carbon pricing could also play a vital role in the viability of extending the plants, according to the memo.

“Although SaskPower has stopped collecting carbon tax costs from customer bills, the federal carbon pricing regulations are still in effect. Coal units are high emitting. As a result, the carbon tax payments on coal generation are extremely large,” it added.

“The supply plan would be in violation of several regulations and agreements as they’re written today.”

• Saskatchewan’s plan to extend life of coal power to cost $26B over 25 years: NDP

The province released a statement on behalf of SaskPower CEO Rupen Pandya in response to the leaked memo on Wednesday.

“As with any large organization, various scenarios, analyses and options may be reviewed internally before decisions are made. Those discussions should not be confused with finalized government direction or policy,” Pandya said. “Public confidence is not served when confidential internal deliberations are taken out of context.”

“Our focus remains on ensuring reliable, affordable power for Saskatchewan residents while making responsible long-term decisions for the province,” he added.

The Opposition NDP believe the government has been hiding the true costs of its plan.

“It is the highest-risk and the highest-cost plan possible and this is according to SaskPower,” Young added. “Saskatchewan families, farms and small businesses are going to be paying for this.”

Minister defends strategy

When pressed about the issue during Wednesday’s question period, Minister Responsible for SaskPower Jeremy Harrison said refurbishment of the coal-fired power plants is essential to the province’s energy future.

Harrison defended the province’s “all-of-the-above” approach to power generation and said energy security was its primary objective, along with reliability and affordability.

“[We’re] using Saskatchewan resources produced by Saskatchewan workers in Saskatchewan facilities, as we bridge to a nuclear future using Saskatchewan uranium,” he said.

• NDP-led modelling claims SaskPower rates may double by 2050 with current provincial policies

The NDP feel some power sources are being left out of the plan.

“There is no frame in which it makes sense outside of politics and ideology when it comes to renewables,” Young said. “This is the fastest and most economic way to get more power online quickly in Saskatchewan.”

SaskPower’s internal memo states that the provincial Crown corporation is operating under the assumption that industrial carbo price negotiations between the governments of Canada and Saskatchewan will allow the supply plan to proceed without regulatory violation.

-With files from Daniel Reech and Wayne Mantyka