Doug Ford still preferred premier despite majority of Ontarians saying it’s time for change: poll

Abacus Data poll shows Ontario PC Party is leading the Liberals by nine per cent in current vote share.

Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives remain the top choice for a plurality of Ontarians, despite most voters saying they’re ready for a change in government at Queen’s Park.

According to a new poll released by Abacus Data for the Toronto Star, support for the PCs stands at 41 per cent among committed voters. That represents a nine-point lead over the Liberal’s 32 per cent and the 19 per cent support held by the New Democrats. The Green Party holds five per cent of the current vote share.

Support for the PCs was up one point from a similar Abacus Data survey on June 2, while the Liberals were up three points and the NDP are down four points.

At the same time, 52 per cent of respondents say it is “definitely time for a change in government in Ontario” while 18 per cent say it would be “nice to change the government.” Beyond that, only 31 per cent of Ontarians believe the province is headed in the “right direction, while 56 per cent say it’s on the “wrong track.”

However, despite apparent negative impressions of the province’s trajectory and a desire to shake up its political leadership, Ford remains the most preferred premier among provincial leaders in Ontario.

Abacus said that 39 per cent of respondents polled would prefer Ford as their premier, compared to 18 per cent support for the NDP’s Marit Stiles. The Liberal’s interim leader, John Fraser, garnered 12 per cent support, but that party is set to choose a new leader in November.

David Coletto, head of Abacus, noted that that although premier’s personal image “remains negative” – pointing out that the political damage from Ford’s purchase and subsequent sale of a private jet appears to have “eased” — many Ontarians see him as the best choice to lead Ontario.

• READ MORE: Doug Ford sees bump in latest poll as furor over jet purchase subsides

“This remains one of the defining dynamics of Ontario politics. Ford is personally polarizing and continues to carry a net negative image, but many Ontarians still see him as the most plausible or strongest governing option,” Coletto writes.

The poll surveyed 2,182 eligible voters from June 12 to June 17. It also found that the Ford government’s approval rating has improved modestly since the last time it spoke to the electorate. At least 39 per cent of voters approve of Ford’s and his government’s performance, while 41 disapprove, representing a two-point increase in approval and a three-point decline in disapproval since June 2.

Last week, Ford was asked about a recent poll by Angus-Reid that showed he held a 21 per cent approval rating among Ontario voters, the lowest of any premier in Ontario. Ford called the poll “fake” and said if an election were held at that time: “we’d win a massive majority once again.”

• READ MORE: ‘I’m no Justin Trudeau’: Doug Ford says sagging poll numbers not indicative of his popularity

Methodology

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to the 2021 census. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.