El Niño could bring rain, flooding, wild weather fluctuations to Central Ontario

El Niño's unpredictable weather usually calls for colder climates and rain as shown in this file image. PHOTO: CTV NEWS

We’re expecting wild, wet weather in May.

David Brain, Simcoe County’s local weather specialist, is calling it.

Brain says we’re in for an El Niño spring and that May is expected to be colder than usual.

“It could be wet with flurries next week and cold right through May. It’s the El Niño effect,” Brain said from his place in Orillia Wednesday.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) concurs.

It says to expect a “strong El Niño event to develop in mid-2026, with high likelihood of emerging between May and July in its April 24 report.

With a warming of waters off the Peruvian coast, wild fluctuations across North America are possible.

To add to Central Ontario’s misery, Environment Canada is calling for frost in Newmarket, Caledon, Georgian and North York Region areas tonight.

Flagged as a Yellow Advisory, the national weather agency says, “Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas. Patchy frost is expected overnight and Thursday morning as temperatures drop to near or below freezing. Damage to plants, trees, and crops is possible. Cover up plants, especially those in frost-prone areas.”

While Barrie has an Environment Canada forecast of 1 degree Celsius on Friday night, we’re not under the frost warning.

Brain explains why.

“Our growing season is a week late,” he said of Barrie versus Newmarket and Caledon regions.

“(Forecasting) is all set for frost warnings during growing seasons. Barrie could get a frost warning and (Orillia) doesn’t because we’re a week behind Barrie’s growing season,” he said.

But it also means the flooding may not be over for northern Central Ontario.

A flood bulletin issued today by Bracebridge-Minden-Parry Sound District, Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) says there are still flooding concerns in some regions.

• Flood Warning: is in effect for the French River and Pickerel River
• Flood Watch: is in effect for the Severn River, including Sparrow Lake
• Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook: is in effect for the Gull River, Muskoka River and Magnetawan River watersheds.

MNR says these conditions remain in effect until Wednesday.