Trump, shifting polls helped to shape a memorable Canada election campaign

This composite image shows, left to right, Liberal Leader Mark Carney in Ottawa on March 27, 2025; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in Toronto on March 30, 2025 and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Edmonton on April 1, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld, Laura Proctor, Christinne Muschi

OTTAWA — While this year’s federal election campaign lasted the minimum number of days required by law, it will still be remembered for the way it tested the party leaders and their teams.

Here’s a look at some of the key moments and issues that shaped the past month in federal politics.

Tragedy in Vancouver

All campaign activity paused on the final day of the campaign as the party leaders and their teams reacted to the tragic events in Vancouver.

Eleven people were confirmed dead as of Sunday afternoon following Saturday night’s vehicle attack on a street festival in Vancouver celebrating the contributions of the Filipino Canadian community. Interim Vancouver Police Chief Steve Rai said a 30-year-old local man was arrested after an SUV plowed through a crowded South Vancouver street at high speed on Saturday, leaving a trail of wreckage and victims on the ground.

“Last night, families lost a sister, a brother, a mother, a father, a son or a daughter. Those families are living every family’s worst nightmare,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said in Hamilton, Ont., on Sunday.

“I know that I join all Canadians in mourning with you. I know that Canadians are united with you.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre met with members of the Filipino community at a church in Mississauga, Ont., on Sunday morning before making a statement.

“I just wanted you all to know that our hearts are with you today. All Canadians are united in solidarity with the Filipino community,” Poilievre said.

“Their loved ones — their brothers, sisters, daughters, sons, mothers and fathers — all of them will have a deep hole in their hearts today. So we will try to fill it with the love of the entire country.”

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh attended the Vancouver festival Saturday night and left just minutes before the attack. He later told reporters he didn’t have the words to describe the tragedy.

“I was there and I just imagine the faces of the kids that I saw smiling, dancing. I imagine the aunties that were there. I don’t even know what to say. It’s just horrific. I’m heartbroken,” he said.

“I just want the Filipino community to know we stand with you. Everyone is with you, everyone is standing with you.”

The Trump factor

Even though U.S. President Donald Trump said recently that he doesn’t want to get involved with the election, he has cast a long shadow over the campaign since it began.

Carney became Liberal leader and prime minister and called for an election in the middle of a trade war with the United States.

Carney has said throughout the campaign that the key question for voters is which party is best suited to deal with Trump and manage Canada’s finances.

Trump declined to comment Wednesday on the election but said he has had good conversations with Carney.

Since the trade war began, Trump has implemented and paused tariffs on several Canadian industries and is still threatening to increase tariffs even as he continues to call into question Canada’s sovereignty.

Trump’s trade aggression has been the top issue motivating voters, polls suggest, while inflation and health care are also on Canadians’ minds.

With just hours to go until election day, the president continues to play a major role in Canadian politics.

Carney came under attack recently after a CBC/Radio-Canada article, citing confidential sources, said Trump pitched Carney on the benefits of Canada joining the U.S. during their March 28 phone call. Carney said he did not mischaracterize the conversation when he neglected to report that Trump had again brought up his notion of making Canada a U.S. state.

Poilievre said Friday that he would call Trump on Day 1 of a new Conservative government to tell him that tariffs are destructive and to seek an early renegotiation of North America’s free trade deal.

A big shift in the polls

In early January, the polls suggested the Conservatives had the election in the bag.

Leading the Liberals and NDP by more than 25 points, Poilievre appeared to be headed for a victory lap that would end with him as prime minister.

But after Trump’s return to the White House, the departure of former prime minister Justin Trudeau and the arrival of Carney as Trudeau’s replacement, the polls took a dramatic turn.

Multiple surveys suggest that the Liberals caught up to the Conservatives in mid-March and have since held the lead.

The NDP, Bloc and Green Party have trailed behind throughout the campaign, making it a two-horse race.

Polling aggregator 338Canada predicts the Liberals will win enough seats to form a majority government.

When Parliament was dissolved at the start of the election, the Liberals held 152 seats, the Conservatives held 120, the Bloc Québécois had 33, the NDP had 24 and the Green Party had two. There were three Independents and four vacancies.

Party rallies

Big rallies are a mainstay of political campaigns — in the 2025 election, they became a regular fixture.

Poilievre, who became a seasoned rally performer during his leadership bid in 2022, held big rallies almost every night for the first three weeks of this campaign, drawing crowds of thousands — along with some skepticism about the reported size of those crowds.

Poilievre draws a lot of energy from those rallies. He strides in like a celebrity to the roaring approval of his base, cracks “dad” jokes and is rewarded with thunderous applause, particularly when he attacks his opponents.

Carney — still learning on the job how to be a politician — is less at home at rallies and held just a handful of them over the first two weeks of his campaign.

The rallies have attracted protests and hecklers. At one rally, Carney had to contend with multiple hecklers baselessly accusing him of crimes because he once appeared in a photo with Ghislaine Maxwell, an accomplice of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The hecklers’ attempts to disrupt the rally ended up galvanizing the crowd to defend Carney.

Singh — who has struggled to get a foothold throughout the campaign and whose party is at risk of losing official party status — has held mostly smaller meet-and-greets his campaign calls “hype-ups.”

His events typically have included a few dozen people, including candidates and local volunteers, though he has drawn some crowds in the hundreds, including one in Saskatoon on April 9.

Media management

In March, the Conservative party announced it was breaking with tradition by not allowing media to join their tour plane and bus to cover Poilievre’s election campaign. It attributed the decision to rising travel costs and the increased capacity for digital and remote access at public events.

While the Conservatives promised “strong, fair and equitable media access” throughout the campaign, the party forced reporters into small, roped-off areas, often far from Poilievre.

At many rallies, reporters were kept from speaking to Conservative supporters. The Conservative leader also only took four questions at each media availability and his team hand-picked which media outlets would ask questions every day. At times, the campaign chose questions from media outlets calling in by phone, rather than from journalists on the ground.

As a result, the Conservative leader answered far fewer questions than his opponents, leaving many questions about his policies and platform unanswered.

The Liberals, NDP and Bloc did invite journalists to join their campaign tours. Singh rarely stopped taking questions before reporters ran out of things to ask each day.

Carney’s team set aside 15 minutes for media questions at every news conference but did not dictate who could ask a question. The Liberals also allowed followup questions — Poilievre’s team did not.

— With files from Alessia Passafiume

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 27, 2025.

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press