Last week, Rush frontman Geddy Lee waded into the Toronto mayoral race by making a surprise political endorsement. In a series of social media posts, Lee declared he would be throwing his support behind Brad Bradford, incumbent Olivia Chow’s main opponent in the race for the mayor’s chair. Lee opined that Toronto has been changing and “not for the better,” adding that he felt the two-term city councillor’s “energy” and “fresh ideas” may be what the city needs to turn things around. The rockstar was not the first well-known Canadian musician to publicly back a candidate for mayor. Earlier in the month, Blue Rodeo frontman Jim Cuddy endorsed Olivia Chow, appearing on stage to perform at her reelection campaign kickoff at the beginning of September. No party label ‘shortcuts’ The impact of political endorsements on voters isn’t entirely clear but one expert told CP24 that these likely have more weight in municipal elections than provincial or federal election campaigns. “In political science we have a sort of a well-worn term that endorsements matter most when voters know the least, basically saying that in a low information environment, endorsements can help voters figure out who they should vote for,” Zac Spicer, associate professor at the School of Public Policy and Administration at York University, told CP24.com. “Municipal elections in Canada are the classic low information environment in that we don’t have information shortcuts like party labels.” He noted that this is why incumbency represents such a “massive advantage” in municipal politics. He added that while celebrity endorsements may help get people talking, endorsements from well-respected politicians, including former mayors, or community leaders may go further. “What really matters is what that person is transferring to you,” Spicer said, adding that a former mayor, premier, or prime minister has held public office and is aware of the challenges that people in the job face. “That would probably matter more than someone who’s like a celebrity… someone could sort of say, ‘Well, what experience does this guy have.’” Premier Doug Ford stopped short of endorsing Chow during a news conference last month, telling reporters that she was “doing an incredible job” and he had a “phenomenal” relationship with her. He later told reporters that he had no plans to formally endorse a candidate in the race. Endorsement also matter as they pertain to a politician’s platform, Spicer said. “If you are making a central plank of your campaign say tenants’ rights, it would be helpful to have the main tenants’ rights group saying, ‘Yeah, this is something that we can get behind.’ It would be endorsing a suite of ideas,” he said. “If one of the things that we’re talking about is public safety, the police union could be a valuable endorsement.” He said endorsements from community groups that represent causes that are not big ballot box issues “probably wouldn’t be as impactful” and he added that some endorsements can actually backfire. “A candidate doesn’t have the ability to decide who gets to endorse them. They get to decide how much they amplify it,” Spicer said. “If they don’t want it, they just would kind of downplay it.” ‘Some psychological effect’ Spicer said it is often hard to know how much endorsement actually matter in an election campaign. “There is some research that has done experiments showing different endorsements and sort of having people react live to them,” he said, adding that the sample sizes were small. “There is some focus group work where they’ve shown fictional candidates and then shown the current mayor endorsing them and then the current councillor. So there is some research bearing out that it does have some psychological effect.” But how it impacts a race “at the macro level” is still unknown, Spicer said. “It’s tough to say that one endorsement moves X amount of vote per cent or something like that,” he noted. “We don’t have anything to show that, but we do have evidence showing that it does make people create a greater affinity towards a certain candidate.” Voters will head to the polls on Oct. 26. With files from The Canadian Press
