More buses won’t be enough: BC Transit’s plan to transform Greater Victoria transit

BC Transit says Greater Victoria will need a new approach to transit as population growth, congestion and changing travel patterns put pressure on the current system.

For many Greater Victoria residents, the future of transit comes down to a few simple questions: How long will the trip take? Will the bus arrive when expected? Will people be able to get across the region without relying on a car?

BC Transit’s draft 25-year Victoria Regional Transit Plan argues that answering those questions will require a different kind of transit system.

The plan, now under review by the Victoria Regional Transit Commission, says the region cannot rely on simply adding more buses and extending existing routes. As population growth, congestion and changing travel patterns put pressure on the current system, BC Transit is proposing a network built around faster service, stronger connections and more efficient use of resources.

The agency’s goal is to increase transit’s share of regional trips from 6.5 per cent today to 15 per cent by 2050.

For riders, that could mean a system that looks different from today’s, with fewer direct routes in some areas, but more frequent service and easier connections across the region.

A system reaching its limits

The draft plan identifies congestion and capacity as two of the biggest barriers to future transit growth.

BC Transit estimates buses lose about 150,000 service hours each year because of congestion. Those delays represent service that could otherwise be used to improve frequency, reliability and coverage.

The agency also says the scale of future growth will require a major expansion of the system. By 2050, BC Transit estimates the region could need nearly twice as many annual service hours and a fleet of about 650 buses, compared with 362 today.

Existing transit facilities in Victoria and Langford are nearing capacity, creating challenges for future expansion. A planned third transit centre in Saanich is expected to provide additional capacity, although it remains years from opening.

BC Transit’s conclusion is that the current model cannot simply be expanded indefinitely. The system itself needs to evolve.

Moving from routes to a network

The most significant change proposed in the plan is a move away from a system built around individual routes toward a connected network.

Traditionally, transit planning has often focused on providing direct trips with as few transfers as possible. BC Transit argues that as Greater Victoria grows, maintaining that approach across the entire region will become increasingly difficult and inefficient.

Instead, the agency wants to focus resources on frequent, reliable corridors while using connections between routes to create a stronger overall network.

For some riders, that could mean making more transfers. BC Transit argues those connections can be worthwhile if they result in shorter waits, better reliability and faster overall travel times.

BC Transit Manager of Service Planning Levi Megenbir pointed to Douglas Street as an example of why the current system needs to change during a recent interview with CFAX 1070.

“We have upwards of 20 routes operating on some sections of Douglas at the same time,” he said.

“Some of those buses are full and some of those buses are nearly empty at different times of the day.”

The draft plan proposes different types of service for different parts of the region. Major corridors would receive more frequent and higher-capacity service, while lower-demand areas could use flexible options such as OnDemand transit.

Preparing for higher-capacity transit

The plan identifies the Victoria-West Shore corridor and the Saanich Peninsula as areas where higher-capacity transit may eventually be required.

BC Transit does not recommend a specific technology at this stage. Instead, it says the region needs to begin planning now for major transportation investments that could take more than a decade to design, fund and build.

Higher-order transit is not expected to be operational until the 2040s, but BC Transit says early planning is necessary if the region wants those options available in the future.

Growth, funding and regional decisions

The transit plan arrives as Greater Victoria faces a broader transportation challenge: how to connect growing communities while reducing pressure on a system designed for a smaller region.

The West Shore is central to that challenge. Communities such as Langford are expected to experience significant growth, increasing demand for connections between residential areas, employment centres and regional destinations.

Langford Mayor and CRD Transportation Committee Vice-Chair Scott Goodmanson said municipalities can no longer approach transportation planning separately.

“We can’t do that anymore,” he said.

“We have to be efficient. We have to work together as a region.”

The creation of the Capital Regional District’s Regional Transportation Service was intended to strengthen regional coordination by giving the region a greater role in transportation planning and advocacy.

Transportation Committee Chair Dean Murdock said the region now has a stronger ability to identify shared priorities and present them to senior levels of government.

Turning the vision into reality, however, will depend on funding. BC Transit says existing funding sources are under pressure and that long-term expansion will require support from local, provincial and federal governments.

The draft plan is a vision for the next 25 years, not a fully costed construction schedule. Specific projects, technologies and timelines will depend on future decisions.

The challenge for the region will be determining whether political support and funding can keep pace with the ambition outlined in the plan.

The choice ahead

The Victoria Regional Transit Plan does not promise a single technology or a major project that will solve every transportation challenge. Instead, it outlines a direction for the future: a system that moves more people by focusing on frequency, reliability and connections.

The question facing Greater Victoria is not whether the region will grow. It is whether transportation systems can grow with it.

The decisions made over the next several years will determine whether the region continues adapting transportation around growth or begins shaping growth around a transportation network.

BC Transit’s message is that the future requires more than a larger transit system.

It requires a different one.