‘We’re a little bit more unique’: CMHC predicts housing dip, but Windsor-Essex staying resilient

Take a look at Windsor’s updated housing outlook for July. CTV Windsor’s Ricardo Veneza has more.

The latest forecast for the housing market from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), particularly for Ontario, is a dour one — but Windsor-Essex seems to be somewhat of an outlier.

On Thursday, the CMHC released its 2025 Housing Market Outlook summer update forecasting price drops of 2 per cent across the country and expecting even larger drops in Ontario and B.C.

“Vancouver and Toronto seem to always skew some of our statistics,” said Julianna Biondo, president of the Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors (WECAR). “I’m not saying that Windsor is immune to any of that for sure but, definitely we’re a little bit more unique and niche in our market.”

The report points to its new scenario based on Canada-U.S. trade tariff information as of June 26 and predicts tariffs will peak in the second half of the year.

That will continue to impact the Canadian economy, producing a mild recession, and contributing to three key factors leading to the housing market slowdown: price pressures, lower demand, and uncertainty.

“I haven’t experienced any get out of dodge, you know, everybody [saying] ‘Oh, my gosh the sky is falling’ I haven’t experienced that. But I think there is some hesitancy,” said Biondo. “We do have a drop in sales for sure.”

Windsor is taking the brunt of the trade war, evidenced by Statistics Canada’s June jobs report putting the city firmly at the top of the unemployment pile with a jobless rate of 11.2 per cent.

But it seems the real estate market in Windsor-Essex is proving resilient — at least in the more competitive sub-$600,000 price bracket where most homes are bought and sold.

“Buyers are just being a little bit more choosy,” said Biondo. “They’re being a little bit more particular and they’re getting the opportunity to get their conditions met, which is wonderful. And that is a key element to having a stable environment for a market.”

WECAR’s June report showed an increase in the average sale price of 2.97 per cent even as home sales dipped again 5.23 per cent and new listings climbed by 11.86 per cent.

The CMHC forecast indicates an expected recovery in 2026, even as unemployment is expected to continue to climb come the fall of 2025 and inflation is predicted to crest 3 per cent by mid-2026 due to the trade environment and connected geopolitical events.

Come next year, Biondo expects that will mean steadier price increases in the Windsor-Essex market as the broader real estate landscape recovers from a tariff-induced downturn.

“We’re still very much in a seller’s market in this area,” said Biondo of the sub-$600,000 category. “Let’s let this trade war play out. Everybody knows that this will come to terms at some point.”

The other drag on the market, according to the report, is the sluggish home construction much of the country is seeing, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia, where starts are predicted to see even further declines.

In those provinces, CMHC points to high housing prices, rising construction costs, and lower investor confidence as factors weighing down the sector with some developers delaying or cancelling projects and missing presale targets as unsold inventory rises — all challenges expected to persist for the rest of 2025.