The latest labour market report from Workforce Windsor-Essex adds to the dour picture being painted by the figures for the region’s economy so far this year, even as the unemployment rate holds relatively steady. On Friday, new jobs data show Canada’s and Ontario’s unemployment rates improved 0.3 points to 6.6 per cent and 0.5 points to 7 per cent respectively, while the Windsor Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) worsened by 0.1 points to 8.2 per cent. “We’ve been on a slide really since the beginning of the year,” said Justin Falconer, the head of Workforce Windsor-Essex. “I would be concerned about the loss of 14,000-plus jobs since the beginning of the year.” Falconer noted since December 2025, the Windsor CMA has lost 14,300 jobs including 2,100 positions last month. He said the region is living through a mixed labour market with no clear direction for growth as the region, and province, suffer through a shifting American tariff regime and continuing trade uncertainty. “The labour market is not in expansion,” said Falconer. “It’s definitely in sort of this replacement hiring mode where, as vacancies come up, employers are determining whether or not they’re really filling or replacing. They’re making a decision — is this a need or is this a want?” The May report continues to bear out the yearlong trend that sees both the labour force and the number of people employed shrink, even as the region has seen population growth every month of 2026. The population in the Windsor CMA grew by 500 from the previous month to 408,800, while the labour force and employment figures fell by 2,200 and 2,100 to 253,100 and 232,400 respectively. The population growth seen so far this year is recapturing losses from the 25-month peak seen in May and June of last year of 409,800 for the region. The Windsor CMA includes all of Windsor-Essex, excluding Pelee Township. Where’s the growth? From April to May of this year, the public sector saw modest growth with 700 positions added while the private sector shed another 2,600 positions. Comparing against the same time last year, public sector employment in the region is up 300 positions while the private sector has lost 12,200 persons. “Self-employment and public employment [are] still growing so, it’s really private employment that’s declining in the numbers,” said Falconer. The self-employed category has grown by 2,200 persons from April to May, to 25,800 persons in the community. It may just be a sign of the times. “I don’t think that’s uncommon during periods of economic downturn,” said Falconer. “We’ve seen big retreats in employment and in labour force numbers, which means people are exiting the labour force. Now, I’m not sure if that’s a temporary exit. The numbers don’t really tell us.” It appears the engine of the region’s economy is motoring along — the manufacturing sector is stronger today than it was a year ago. The May report shows the sector up by 1,400 positions from the same time last year, despite a dip of 500 persons employed in manufacturing from month-to-month. “The big change I think is happening in the service sector right now overall,” said Falconer. “For May 2026 to May 2025, we’ve lost 6,900 persons working in the services producing sector.” That includes those working in accommodation and food services, as well as healthcare and social services. And the growth in the public sector looks to be concentrated mostly in administrative roles instead of frontline services. “Although we are seeing growth in public administration month-over-month, we’re also seeing corresponding declines in healthcare and social services,” said Falconer. “You have to reconcile that and it’s difficult at times.” Youth unemployment The job hunt appears especially tough for young people as the region’s youth unemployment rate climbed above 20 per cent. The 1.4-point rise from the previous month to 20.9 per cent in May means the youth unemployment rate is now 3.1 per centage points worse than it was the same time last year. “That 20 per cent is quite concerning,” said Falconer. “I’m hopeful that summer hiring is going to pick up.” With the local unemployment rate at 8.2 per cent, Falconer believes a healthier youth unemployment figure would be less than double that topline number — closer to 16 per cent. And the region’s improved general unemployment rate, compared to a year ago when it hit 10.8 per cent, may lend some cautious optimism to those young people looking to get a job this summer. “It’s going to be tough. I just think the silver lining is that adult unemployment or general unemployment is not as bad as what it was a year ago and so there should be a little less competition,” said Falconer.
