Windsor-Essex sees unemployment dip amid softening labour market

Windsor’s unemployment rate fell last month, but experts say it doesn’t tell the whole story.

The latest monthly labour statistics show the jobless rate in Windsor-Essex trending lower and manufacturing employment at healthy levels – but not all is rosy in the Rose City.

On Friday, the monthly Labour Force Report released by Workforce Windsor-Essex showed unemployment at 8.1 per cent in the region for April, down 0.4 per cent from the month prior and 2.6 per cent lower from the same time last year; however, there remain worrying trends riding just beneath the surface.

“I know at first glance you’re happy that the unemployment rate is ticking downwards. I think that’s generally the direction that we want to see that continue to move,” Justin Falconer, the head of the labour market agency, told CTV News. “But I continue to be concerned about falling overall employment figures.”

The report shows while the region’s population has climbed by 400 to 408,300 from the previous month, the labour force has declined by 3,700 and the working population has fallen by 2,400 to sit at 234,500.

Those able but not participating in the workforce also continues to grow, now sitting at 153,000 people. That’s 4,100 more people not working in April than was seen in March and a 10,000 person increase from the same time last year.

“It means that unemployment, generally, could be understated,” said Falconer. “It’s a concern, you know, because this represents our talent supply, this participation and so as people remove themselves from the labour market, as non-participant numbers grow, it just means that there’s less available talent for employers.”

Employment rate decline

In Windsor’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), the employment rate has dipped 0.7 per cent from March to April, to 57.4 per cent. The region’s participation rate has also dropped 1 per cent last month to 62.5 per cent, a decline of 2.6 per cent from the same time last year.

“Across Ontario and across Canada, participation rates are growing. They’re etching up,” said Falconer. “In Windsor, they’re falling. Falling dramatically. Like, from last month to the most recent reported month, we’ve gone down 1 per cent whereas in Canada and Ontario those numbers are going up. So, falling 1 per cent in a single month is a pretty big move.”

Ontario’s unemployment rate sits at 7.5 per cent, its employment rate at 59.9 per cent, and its participation rate at 64.8 per cent – all representing marginal improvements in April from the previous month.

Nationally, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.2 per cent 6.9 per cent, the employment rate dipped 0.1 per cent to 60.5 per cent, and the participation rate rose 0.1 per cent to 65 per cent, over the same period.

In the Windsor CMA, both the employment and participation rates have steadily and similarly declined since the end of last year.

Healthy manufacturing

Falconer notes the region’s manufacturing sector appears to be weathering the storm of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs targeting autos, steel, and aluminum even as trade war impacts drag the economy more broadly.

“We’re at 50,700 people employed in the region in manufacturing, which is a very healthy and strong number,” said Falconer. “What we saw last month was the number of people in health care and education fall by 2,500 persons and so, that’s part of the story.”

In a media release, Ontario’s governing Progressive Conservatives touted figures included in the latest labour report showing 8,700 new manufacturing jobs created in the province in April as evidence its Protect Ontario plan is working.