Alberta separatists say the election of Quebec premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon bodes well for the movement and could change the political dynamic of Canada entirely. St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Quebecois is set to form a minority government after Monday’s election in Quebec that saw the government Coalition Avenir Quebec wiped from the assembly and its leader, Christine Fréchette’s resignation. The premier-designate has pledged to hold what would be Quebec’s third separation referendum, but after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tenure is over. In a series of congratulatory social media posts, Alberta separation proponent Jeff Rath said the victory means “Canada as you knew it no longer exists.” St-Pierre Plamondon has previously shown his willingness to support Alberta’s own separatist movement. “For the first time in Canadian history, we have a government in Quebec that supports Alberta independence,” Rath told The Canadian Press on Tuesday. “That’s huge.” On Oct. 19, Albertans will head to the polls to, among other things, vote on whether they want to remain in Canada or hold a second, binding referendum on leaving Canada. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called the vote earlier this year, citing two competing petitions on either side of the separation debate that both received hundreds of thousands of signatures. Smith has said she supports Alberta staying in Canada and would be voting that way. She congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon on Monday in a social media post, saying she’s looking forward to working with his government. “Our provinces and our country are stronger when we work together, stand united and build a stronger future for all Canadians,” Smith wrote. She didn’t address the issue of separation in her congratulatory note, nor did Prime Minister Mark Carney in his own social media post. Political rhetoric in the coming weeks Rath, who had previously denounced Smith fiercely for putting off a binding separation vote, said he found St-Pierre Plamondon’s victory inspiring. “I think this is going to be really interesting for Alberta politics,” he said. University of Ottawa political science professor André Lecours says it’s possible Quebec’s political situation has a “demonstration effect” on Alberta. “There is, I would say, an outside chance that this could help those who support having a referendum on independence by reminding us that these types of politics are still still present in other parts of the country,” he told CTV News Edmonton. “Broader picture here, I think, is that intergovernmental relations, certainly with the federal government, are going to get more complicated.” The two separation movements, however, hold stark differences that suggest to Lecours that Rath’s statement of Canada no longer existing as we know is “obviously false.” “We know the independence movement in Quebec dates back from the 1970s, late 60s even. That’s the reality of Canada, having a secessionist movement in Quebec, one that is strongly institutionalized through the (Parti Quebecois), but also in society.” Trade war considerations University of Calgary director of international policy Carlo Dade says Quebec’s separation push does occur “not at an ordinary time for Canada” as tensions continue between Canada and its largest trade partner, the U.S. “I think the obvious first take is, at a time when the Americans are testing not just Canada but the strength of our confederation, having these movements occur provides potential opening, potential leverage and potential advantage for the Americans,” he said. He said the nature of the trade war lends itself already to tensions between provinces as some suffer more than others. He says St-Pierre Plamondon’s promise to wait until after Trump leaves office ignores the “structural and generational” trade threats the two countries would be facing. Party fracturing potential The Parti Quebecois saw much of its electoral support come from outside of Quebec’s two major cities and managed to form government despite an overall vote share of about 29 per cent. Rath said something similar could happen in Alberta should Smith’s United Conservative Party fracture over the separation debate. Smith has been adamant that her party, government and caucus are stout federalists, but she has in recent weeks seen calls for a leadership review from two of her UCP constituency associations. Rath said despite the premier’s assurances that the UCP isn’t a separatist party, he thinks rank-and-file members who want Alberta to go its own way represent a “supermajority” within the party. With files from The Canadian Press and CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski
