Major hurdles still ahead for Alberta pipeline project: experts

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith arrive to announce a proposed pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast in Calgary on Thursday, July 02, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol

Reaction is pouring in to the news of Alberta’s pipeline project being submitted to the federal major projects office, but energy experts say there’s some major hurdles ahead to getting the project underway.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith announced the highly-anticipated submission in a joint press conference on Thursday night in Calgary pipeline that would stretch from Bruderheim — a town northeast of Edmonton — to a terminal in Delta, B.C., just south of Vancouver.

It would follow the existing Trans Mountain pipeline, delivering more than one million barrels a day to tankers, which would then ship to Asian markets.

The province is aiming to have the pipeline officially designated as a project of national interest by Oct. 1, with further hopes to start the build as early as Sept. 1, 2027.

But industry watchers say there’s still some major hurdles that need to be cleared before any of that can happen.

Public payment

Despite Smith’s pledge Alberta taxpayers won’t cover the cost of the entire line, public money will fund most of the project.

Federally owned Trans Mountain Corporation will be steering the ship.

The Crown corporation will be working with Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline for the build, though that company says it is currently only a 10 per cent partner.

That leaves a sizeable chunk of the price tag — estimated to be between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion — up to public cost.

On Thursday, Smith blamed federal policy for the lack of private interest.

“We have pipeline companies that have literally spent billions of dollars in recent years on failed regulatory approval processes,” Smith told reporters. “That’s the environment we’re finding ourselves in.”

Energy experts agree, but point out the pipeline is now a massive publicly funded gamble.

“Trying to take on something that doesn’t have a high chance of success is not something that private sector companies sign up for,” former Alberta Petroleum Marking Commission CEO Richard Masson said.

“There’s a lot that needs to come together for this pipeline to move forward and to have the committed shipping that is needed to backstop building a $40 billion pipeline.”

The financial outline doesn’t sit right with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

The spending watchdog is calling for policy changes “instead of borrowing billions of dollars for a proposed pipeline,” according to federal director Franco Terrazzano.

“Governments are blocking pipelines with carbon taxes and red tape and then wasting taxpayers’ money trying to get projects built,” he said in a statement Friday.

The province has already spent $18.3 million planning the project.

Production peak?

Experts believe the other unknown revolves around filling the line.

The province wants construction to begin as soon as September 2027, but there still hasn’t been a producer commit to ramping up production to accommodate an early-2030s completion date.

“There were no shippers, there were no oilsands producers in the room saying that they were committed to actually move forward with this project,” former Trans Canada executive Dennis McConaghy said.

But new CEO Mark Maki told CTV News Thursday more capacity is needed, even after the company’s current expansion is complete.

But Masson isn’t so sure.

“We’re talking about 2.2 million barrels a day of new pipeline capacity five years from now (that has already been approved),” he said.

“We don’t have the growth right now to support all of that, and shippers are not going to sign up for 20 year take-or-pay commitments unless they have high confidence that they’re going to be able to deliver that growth.”

Masson also points out bitumen production will just be part of the issue.

He believes a new pipeline would require more diluent than is currently in Canada’s annual supply.

That’ll mean more capacity needs to be paid for and constructed, or that more diluent needs to be imported.

Either way, he says, “a successful pipeline would require infrastructure expansion that we have never seen before.”

Pathway promises

There are also lingering questions around Canada’s commitment to the environment, critics say.

Ottawa has made promises to expand B.C. coastal protection, but a large emissions line of the Alberta memorandum of understanding is still up in the air.

Both governments say terms have been agreed on to launch the Pathways carbon capture project, but the timeline remains unclear.

Pathways Alliance President Kendall Dilling told CTV News the “paper (will) be signed in the coming days, and then the details will be available.”

Environmental protection groups hope the agreement won’t skirt important responsibility.

“We have growing pollution on the landscape, and the governments are only presenting to the public the economic benefits,” Keepers of the Water’s Jesse Cardinal said.

“We need to diversify the economy. This isn’t the time we should be announcing new pipelines — this is the time where we should be announcing our fossil fuel phaseout.”

Former Liberal environment minister Steven Guilbeault resigned from cabinet and then as a member of Parliament because of the prime minister’s climate policies.

He too is concerned about the impacts of a new line.

“We’re seeing record heat waves in northeast Canada,” Guilbeault said. “The prime minister’s plane couldn’t take off because of an extreme weather event on Canada Day.”

“Certainly, climate change is no longer a priority.”