Conflicting data on Alberta’s emissions leads to questions about Pathways project

The province says its oilsands strategy is delivering results in lowering emissions, but environmental groups say there are major challenges ahead.

A new report by the Alberta government says emissions per barrel from the oilsands have fallen as production has grown, but critics argue the measurement does not reflect the sector’s total greenhouse gas output.

The province’s annual Oil Sands Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity report shows emissions per barrel have fallen by 28 per cent since 2012.

During that same time, oilsands production has increased to more than 3.3 million barrels per day, based on 2024 data.

That data shows oilsands production has increased by 1.7 million more barrels per day and annual oilsands production has grown from approximately 600 million barrels to more than 1.2 billion barrels.

The report is based on facility-level emissions and production data from regulated oilsands operators and covers the 2024 calendar year, the most recent complete reporting period.

The province attributes the reduction to advances in technology, innovation and more efficient operations.

“We are on our way to doubling production while proving that innovation, investment and responsible development can deliver real environmental results,” said Alberta Environment and Protected Areas Minister Grant Hunter.

“Alberta is showing Canada that economic growth and emissions reductions can go hand in hand.”

But still, environmental groups argue emissions intensity doesn’t capture the full picture of the sector’s overall climate impact, even as the Pathways carbon capture project moves ahead.

Emissions intensity and total emissions tell different stories

Stephen Legault, senior manager of Alberta energy transition with Environmental Defence, said emissions intensity is an incomplete measurement because it focuses on emissions per barrel rather than total emissions from the sector.

“The challenge with emissions intensity is it’s a very inaccurate way of measuring the actual impact of Alberta’s greenhouse gas emissions,” Legault said.

While the report highlights a reduction in emissions intensity, overall emissions from oilsands production have continued to rise, he said, adding that production in the oil patch since 2012 “has more than tripled,” leading to emissions increasing two or three per cent.

Legault said he believes governments should focus more on total emissions reductions as Canada works toward its climate goals.

“This idea of measuring by intensity is very popular among governments like Premier Smith’s and I guess (Prime Minister) Mark Carney’s, who want to hide behind this idea that climate change is important to our constituents, but we really don’t want to do anything meaningful to upset industry,” he said.

“It’s a very disingenuous way of measuring the true impact.”

Meanwhile, Canadian Climate Institute environmental economist Dave Sawyer says the oilsands is also expected to see a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions — even as the Pathways carbon capture project moves ahead.

The institute has estimated an average of 20 megatonnes a year in new emissions from the oilsands sector with new planned pipeline capacity.

The Alberta government has argued emissions intensity is a consistent way to compare performance across the sector, using facility-level emissions and production data reported by regulated operators.

Pathways carbon capture project advances through Alberta-Ottawa agreement

The emissions report was released as Alberta, the federal government and five major oilsands producers announced a new memorandum of understanding this week aimed at advancing the Pathways carbon capture and storage project.

The agreement between Alberta, Ottawa and the Oil Sands Alliance created what it calls a “framework” for production growth while supporting carbon capture infrastructure.

The province says the Pathways project is expected to capture and permanently store approximately six million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually from multiple oilsands facilities through a shared transportation network and storage hub in the Cold Lake region.

The project is expected to ultimately contribute to 16 million tonnes of annual emissions reductions.

Federal Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson said the agreement is part of a broader effort to increase investment while reducing emissions.

“The work of the Oil Sands Alliance is critical to these goals,” Hodgson said in a statement.

He added projects will be built in three stages and reduce emissions by 16 megatonnes each year.

The agreement links future pipeline development with advancement of the Pathways project, Hodgson said.

“The MOU makes clear that the advancement of a pipeline requires the advancement of Pathways, to its entire emissions reductions goal by 2045.”

Alberta Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean called the agreement a major step for the province’s energy sector – especially after the province’s West Coast pipeline submission to the major projects office.

“Growing Alberta’s energy production and reducing emissions can go hand-in-hand,” Jean said.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers also welcomed the agreement, saying it provides a framework to support future investment and emissions reductions.

“By building on our natural resources and the expertise of our energy workers, we can drive investment, enhance competitiveness, and deliver lasting economic and environmental benefits for Canadians,” CAPP president and CEO Lisa Baiton said in a statement.

Environmental groups raise concerns about public funding, project scale

While supporters say Pathways will help reduce emissions while maintaining Alberta’s energy competitiveness, critics are questioning the amount of public funds being considered for the project.

Janetta McKenzie, director of oil and gas with the Pembina Institute, said the latest agreement includes potential additional government support for the project’s operating costs.

“This is in addition to already quite generous tax credits on the table to help defray the capital cost of the project,” she said.

The scale of Pathways has changed since it was first announced, McKenzie noted. When first pitched, the project proposed an annual 22-megatonne emission reduction by 2030. It now proposes about six megatonnes of carbon capture by 2035 in a non-binding agreement, she said.

Amil Shapka, co-founder of No CO2 Pipelines Alberta, said rural landowners and communities remain concerned as well about the proposed carbon dioxide pipeline network and storage sites.

“This will be the largest such project in the world, theoretically affecting an area three times the size of P.E.I., and I think our biggest concern is that there is it’s going to be fast tracked with no environmental impact assessment,” Shapka said.

“CO2 itself is an asphyxiant, and it’s toxic, and so it carries with it its own unique set of risks.”

Shapka also questioned the amount of public money being considered for the project and what he calls a minimal impact on emission reductions.

“The cherry on top of the sundae is that this project is only going to capture six per cent of emissions so really, in the bigger scheme of things, it’s going to have a negligible effect on global emissions,” he said.

“I’m just surprised. Where’s the public interest in all of this?”

Calgary Chamber encouraged by economic opportunity

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce welcomed the Pathways agreement, saying it provides more certainty for future investment.

President and CEO Deborah Yedlin said the announcement addresses several outstanding issues around the project and future oilsands growth.

“We’re obviously, really happy that it was announced.”

Yedlin said the combination of pipeline infrastructure, increased production and carbon capture could create significant economic activity.

“When you think about the combination of building a pipeline to the West Coast, plus what you need to fill the pipeline in terms of increasing production, it’s very possible that we go back to 2005, 2006 levels of employment and activity in Alberta,” she said.

She also defended investment in carbon capture, saying technological advances have helped reduce emissions and improve efficiency.

“Technology has decreased emissions, increased efficiency,” Yedlin said.

“We figured out how to extract oil from sand. We figured out how to make money. Now we’re decreasing the emissions, and that’s all about technological advancement and processes, and being willing to try new things to get to where we need to go.”

The Pathways project remains subject to regulatory approvals and final agreements.

The Alberta government says it expects the project to support thousands of jobs while helping position the province as a leader in carbon capture technology.

— with files from The Canadian Press