A new poll suggests Alberta’s federal political landscape may be becoming more competitive, even though Conservatives still hold a clear province-wide lead. The survey by Abacus Data finds 51 per cent of committed voters in Alberta say they would vote Conservative if a federal election were held today, compared with 36 per cent who say they would vote Liberal and seven per cent who support the NDP. While that still gives the Conservatives a clear lead, the numbers represent a narrower gap than in recent federal elections and point to stronger Liberal support in Alberta’s major cities. David Coletto, chief executive officer of Abacus Data, says the numbers show the federal Liberals performing better in Alberta than they have in years. “Our survey really shows that over the last number of weeks, Albertans, like many other Canadians, have warmed up to the prime minister,” Coletto said. “It’s hard for me to even think back to a moment when the federal Liberals were polling in the high to mid 30s, as they are now in the province of Alberta.” The poll points to a strong urban rural divide in federal voting patterns. In Edmonton, the survey finds the Liberals leading with 47 per cent support compared with 40 per cent for the Conservatives. In Calgary, the Conservatives hold a narrower lead, 49 per cent to 39 per cent. Outside Calgary and Edmonton, the Conservative advantage widens considerably. The survey finds Conservatives at 61 per cent in communities outside the two largest cities, compared with 26 per cent for the Liberals. In rural Alberta, Conservative support rises to 65 per cent while Liberal support drops to 21 per cent. “We do continue to see that big divide between urban and rural Alberta,” Coletto said. “In a way it’s resembling now the kind of urban divide you see in provincial politics.” Overall, views of the federal government are closely divided in Alberta. The survey finds 41 per cent approve of the way the federal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney is handling things in Canada, while 38 per cent disapprove and 17 per cent say they neither approve nor disapprove. Approval varies sharply by geography. In Edmonton, 52 per cent approve of the federal government, while 27 per cent disapprove. In Calgary, approval stands at 45 per cent with 35 per cent disapproval. Outside the two cities approval falls to 30 per cent while 47 per cent disapprove. In rural Alberta, approval drops to 25 per cent while 53 per cent disapprove. The survey also finds impressions of Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are closely split among Albertans. Forty per cent say they have a positive impression of Carney and 37 per cent a negative one. Poilievre receives positive impressions from 41 per cent of respondents and negative impressions from 38 per cent. Coletto says perceptions of Carney may be contributing to the Liberals’ improved standing in the province. “I think there’s some goodwill towards Mark Carney in the province,” he said. “His favorable ratings, when you ask people if they have a positive or negative view of him, are equal to that of conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.” Brendan Boyd, a political scientist at MacEwan University, says policy changes may be affecting voter sentiment. “You see that some of these things that Alberta has been pushing for a long time and didn’t maybe go very far under the Trudeau government,” Boyd said. “So, things like pipelines, things about reducing environmental regulations on the oil and gas industry, those are very much on the table under the Carney government, and we’ve seen movement in those areas.” Boyd says it is still too early to say whether the polling reflects a lasting political shift. “Polling can change pretty quickly,” Boyd said. “It’s way too early to say that this is going to be some kind of seismic shift in terms of Albertan voting patterns.” He says rising support for a party in polls does not always translate into winning seats. “A general bump in the province, especially in a province where it has been often really huge margins for conservatives, may not translate into seats,” Boyd said. Boyd says rural Alberta remains a particularly difficult area for federal Liberals. “If you go into the rural areas, all of a sudden it starts to become 70 per cent conservative,” he said. “It is a very different ball game outside of the two major centers.” The Abacus Data survey was conducted among 1,000 Alberta adults between Feb. 20 and 25. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
