Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding lead in the race for Ottawa’s mayor with just over two weeks left in the municipal election campaign, according to a new poll conducted exclusively for CTV News Ottawa. Nanos Research surveyed 762 randomly selected Ottawa residents between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8. The survey found that 49 per cent of decided voters responded that they would vote for Sutcliffe if an election were held today, compared to 31 per cent for Jeff Leiper. Twelve per cent of respondents said they would vote for Neil Saravanamuttoo and seven per cent said they would vote for Alex Lawson. One per cent of decided respondents said they would vote for another candidate for Ottawa’s mayor. Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos said Sutcliffe holds a “commanding advantage” in Ottawa’s mayoral race. “Among all voters, 23 per cent remain undecided, meaning nearly one in four voters are still up for grabs.” When factoring in undecided voters, Sutcliffe has the support of 41 per cent of respondents, compared to 24 per cent support for Leiper, six per cent support for Saravanamuttoo and five per cent for Lawson. Sutcliffe, Leiper, Saravanamuttoo and Lawson will participate in the CTV News Ottawa mayoral debate on Wednesday, Oct. 14 at 10 a.m. Watch on CTVNewsOttawa.ca, listen on Newstalk 580 CFRA and watch on the Newstalk 580 CFRA YouTube Channel. Leiper has support downtown Nanos says Sutcliffe leads in support in Ottawa’s east, west and rural areas, while Leiper “holds the advantage in downtown Ottawa.” In the downtown area, the survey shows Leiper has the support of 43 per cent of decided respondents, compared to 31 per cent support for Sutcliffe, 20 per cent support for Saravanamuttoo and seven per cent support for Lawson. Sutcliffe has the support of more than 50 per cent of decided voters in the east, west and rural areas, according to Nanos Research. In West Ottawa, 54 per cent of decided voters said they would vote for Sutcliffe, compared to 27 per cent support for Leiper, nine per cent support for Saravanamuttoo and seven per cent support for Lawson. Three per cent of decided voters in Ottawa’s west end said they would vote for another candidate, according to Nanos. The Nanos survey shows Sutcliffe has the support of 56 per cent of decided voters in Ottawa’s east end, compared to 29 per cent support for Leiper, seven per cent support for Saravanamuttoo and six per cent support for Lawson. Two per cent of decided voters in the east end said they would vote for another mayoral candidate. In Rural Ottawa, the Nanos survey shows Sutcliffe has the support of 54 per cent of decided respondents, compared to 26 per cent support for Leiper, 11 per cent support for Saravanamuttoo and nine per cent support for Lawson. Voter breakdown Nanos Research polling shows Leiper has the highest level of support among residents 18 to 34, while Sutcliffe leads among voters over the age of 35. Leiper has the support of 51 per cent of decided voters ages 18 to 34, compared to 30 per cent who said they would vote for Sutcliffe, 11 per cent supporting Saravanamuttoo and seven per cent indicating they would vote for Lawson. Sutcliffe has the support of 54 per cent of decided voters aged 35 to 54, compared to 25 per cent indicating they would vote for Leiper and 13 per cent support for Saravanamuttoo, according to the Nanos Research poll. Six per cent of decided voters between the ages of 35 and 54 said they would vote for Lawson. Among voters over the age of 55, 57 per cent of decided voters said they would vote for Sutcliffe, compared to 22 per cent support for Leiper, 11 per cent support for Saravanamuttoo and eight per cent support for Lawson. The poll shows 54 per cent of men and 43 per cent of women said they would vote for Sutcliffe. Leiper had the support of 26 per cent of men and 37 per cent of women. The poll found 12 per cent of men and 11 per cent of women said they would vote for Saravanamuttoo, while Lawson had the support of seven per cent of men and eight per cent of women. Fourteen candidates are running to be mayor of Ottawa. In alphabetical order, they are: Queen Divine Priya Amber Bakshi, Zed Chebib, Bernard Couchman, Suraj Harish, Alex Lawson, Jeff Leiper, Geoff Nicholas, Josh Rachlis, Neil Saravanamuttoo, Ali Shayvard, Jacob Solomon, Mark Sutcliffe (incumbent), Amjad Ali Syed, and Peter Westaway. Methodology The Nanos Research survey was conducted exclusively for CTV News Ottawa between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8. The survey included 762 Ottawa randomly selected residents with interviews completed by telephone and online. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
