Should Windsor-Essex brace for another active weather season?

A sunny sky in Windsor, Ont. on June 5, 2026. (Chris Campbell/CTV News Windsor)

A warmer-than-normal summer is expected across much of Canada, including southwestern Ontario, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada. Weather experts urge residents to prepare for everything from extreme heat and wildfire smoke to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Federal forecasters released their summer outlook Thursday, calling for above-normal temperatures across much of the country.

While the precipitation outlook remains uncertain, forecasters said there is a slight lean toward drier-than-normal conditions overall.

Jennifer Smith, a national warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said Windsor-Essex residents should expect another season marked by heat and the potential for severe weather.

“I would expect a warmer summer with still that same potential for severe storms,” Smith said.

Southwestern Ontario is no stranger to active summer weather, regularly experiencing thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, lightning, and tornadoes.

That risk is reflected in new research from the Northern Tornadoes Project at Western University, which suggests tornado activity in Canada has shifted eastward in recent decades.

“We definitely found that there was a shift going on, that there were fewer tornadoes occurring on the Prairies, more in Ontario and Quebec,” said Dr. David Sills, director of the project. “The centre of tornado activity in the country used to be southern Saskatchewan, and now it’s southern Ontario.”

According to Sills, the findings mirror trends observed in the United States, where researchers have documented fewer tornadoes in the traditional Tornado Alley region and more activity east of the Mississippi River.

Sills said researchers are continuing to investigate what may be driving the change, though no direct link to climate change has been established.

“We know that in Ontario in general and in Quebec in general, there are more tornadoes happening now than there used to be,” he told CTV News.

For Windsor-Essex, geography plays a significant role.

Sills said much of southern Ontario benefits from the moderating influence of the Great Lakes, which can suppress severe weather during parts of the spring and early summer. Windsor-Essex, however, is often exposed to storm systems moving north from Michigan.

“There’s not a lake upstream of all that weather coming across from the U.S.,” Sills said. “The lake protection isn’t there for Windsor and Essex County as much.”

While tornado activity has remained relatively quiet in the region so far this year, Ontario has already recorded four confirmed tornadoes in 2026, all in the London area, according to the Northern Tornadoes Project.

Environment Canada is also introducing a new thunderstorm outlook product beginning June 8. The tool will identify areas where conditions are favourable for thunderstorm development up to 36 hours in advance and will be available through WeatherCAN and Environment Canada weather pages.

Meanwhile, local fire officials are reminding residents that prolonged warm and dry conditions can also elevate fire risk.

Windsor Fire and Rescue Services Chief Fire Prevention Officer John Smith said open-air burning remains one of the biggest concerns during dry weather.

“No open burning, no backyard bonfires,” Smith said, noting open-air burning is prohibited within Windsor city limits.

He said residents using charcoal barbecues in parks should ensure coals are fully extinguished before leaving the area.

Smith pointed to a recent fire near North Service Road that spread through dry grass and vegetation before firefighters were able to stop it from reaching a nearby subdivision.

“Even at just a regular house fire right now, it’s the potential of the dryness to spread that fire way beyond the area of origin,” he said.

Residents are also encouraged to trim vegetation around their homes, properly extinguish smoking materials, and secure outdoor furniture ahead of severe weather.

Health Canada is also encouraging Canadians to stay informed, stay hydrated, and stay cool during periods of extreme heat.

Sills said preparedness remains one of the most important tools available when severe weather strikes.

“The safest thing is to be away from windows and doors and in an interior room of the house,” he said of tornado warnings. “As much as we appreciate getting photos and videos, the safest thing is to take shelter.”

Experts say monitoring weather alerts, checking local air quality reports and having an emergency kit on hand can help residents prepare for whatever the summer season may bring.