CTV News is your Alberta Referendum headquarters. Live results. Expert analysis. Everything you need to know is here. Both in Alberta and nationwide, the focus of Monday’s referendum has been on the question of separation. But that’s just one of 10 questions being put to Albertans. In a variety of camps, the others are referred to as “the nine.” Alberta’s Voice, a grassroot remain campaign, has a “no to the nine” lawn sign, while some separatists, frustrated with Premier Danielle Smith, are promoting their own boycott with the phrase “decline the 9.” Prime Minister Mark Carney weighed in on the topic for the first time Thursday and encouraged a Calgary crowd to make sure they mark their ballots, “including, ‘No to the Nine.’” Smith responded a social media post repeating her counter message of “yes to the rest.” The nine questions themselves can be split into two groups: Four ask whether the province should work to change Canada’s Constitution, on topics ranging from abolishing the Senate to allowing provinces to opt out of federal programs, such as health care, without losing federal funding. The other five are connected to immigration, including whether the province should have more control over the system in Alberta, and whether it should charge a fee to those with a “non-permanent immigration status” for health care and education. What impact would the nine have nationwide? Experts say no matter the outcome of Monday’s vote, nothing tangible will change the next day for either Alberta or the rest of Canada. “It’s almost irrelevant because they’re not binding,” Concordia University economics professor Moshe Lander told CTV News from Calgary. “They don’t actually mean anything in terms of Confederation, in terms of the Constitution, in terms of law.” Any changes to the Constitution are complicated, with many on Alberta’s list requiring support of seven provinces that represent at least 50 per cent of Canada’s population. Abolishing the Senate would require consent of all 10 provinces, the House of Commons and the Senate itself. While no tangible change is expected next week in any referendum outcome, whether a message from a potential “yes” vote to the other nine could resonate with Canadians elsewhere is a different question. “If Alberta says that we can openly be a little more aggressive, not just being anti-immigrant, but even trying to cut them off from public services, yes, it could encourage other provinces to say, ‘Well, if they get a chance to say that, why don’t we get a chance to say that?’” Lander said. He also said Alberta has traditionally been viewed as “kind of a wild west.” “Even if Albertans say, ‘Yeah, we’re not too fond of immigrants,’ or, ‘Yeah, we want to try and wrestle control over policies that have traditionally been federal-level decisions,’ there is the possibility that the rest of Canada just shrugs and says, ‘Well, there’s Alberta being Alberta again.’” Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt believes a “yes” on immigration questions could influence other provinces to make similar moves. “Because we have seen a breakdown in the immigration consensus over the last few years, something that even the Trudeau government and the Carney government have recognized,” the political analyst told CTV News. On questions involving constitutional change, Bratt said it will be easy to find some “synergies” between Alberta and Quebec, such as on federal spending power, and the power to name judges. But he added it will be “much tougher” to get buy in from other provinces and the federal government. “So, I want to see what transpires, and this could be a problem for (Smith) after the referendum, if she is seen to be working closely with a separatist government in Quebec,” Bratt said. Lander said a “yes” to constitutional questions could encourage any provinces that may have been quietly considering similar questions to push for broader constitutional discussions, something that hasn’t happened since the Meech Lake Accord in 1987. “Personally, I don’t think that the Alberta questions are meaningful in any way, but I do agree that hey, this is a full generation past,” Lander said. “In order to keep that Constitution fresh and relevant, it’s not that it has to be changed. It’s just that it has to be reread and maybe reviewed. And I don’t think that there’s necessarily anything wrong with that.” Political analyst Lori Williams “it’s certainly possible” other provinces would want to see changes in the wake of Alberta, but pointed to the difficult reality of changing the Constitution. “We’ve seen when we start talking about constitutional amendments, different provinces want different things, and getting an agreement on a unanimous, or even a seven out of 10 provinces, agreement on some of these questions has proved very difficult in Canadian history,” Williams said. Do we know how people will vote? There is far less polling available on the expected outcomes of the nine as there is on the separation question, but one from last summer found 60 per cent support for the immigration-related questions, and around 40 per cent for the constitutional topics. That was before some in the separatist movement encouraged boycotting the nine. And according to Williams, most Albertans only started paying closer attention to the nine questions in the last few weeks. She described the polling process on them as “quite difficult.” “As pollsters actually read the questions, people get confused or impatient, and so we don’t have a really good set of numbers on the individual questions. There have been some polls that have indicated varying levels of support,” she told CTV News. Williams has spoken to thousands of Albertans on both sides of the debate as she has led information sessions put on by community groups over the past few months. She has seen a lot of confusion around the nine questions and thinks that will impact the response rate. “People who don’t quite understand what the questions mean are wondering whether they absolutely have to answer those … a lot of people that are frustrated and overwhelmed,” she said. Bratt believes there’s “a good chance” none of the nine will pass, or if they do, it will be narrowly. “‘No to the Nine,’ it has been gaining traction, and the separatist movement, who would endorse … these other nine questions are being told to boycott them, because they all involve staying in Canada,” Bratt said. “And if the separatists don’t vote on them, I don’t know how they pass.” Williams said it will be important to watch whether fewer people vote on the other nine than the separation question, and how that may influence a provincial mandate. “Is a 50 per cent plus-one vote that was cast by only 30 per cent of those who voted in the campaign, is that enough to give the province a mandate or not? I think questions like that will emerge,” she said. Whatever happens Monday, due to the complicated nature of having to hand count 10 separate ballots that involve marking 10 pieces of paper put into 10 envelopes and then 10 separate ballot boxes, no one expects to learn an immediate outcome. Separation question responses will be counted first. Bratt predicts there may not be an answer on the other nine until Wednesday or Thursday. Williams agrees it “could be late in the week.”
