OTTAWA — Voters in three federal ridings are casting ballots in byelections today, with the Liberals’ slim majority once again in the balance. The byelections in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., Beaches–East York, Ont. and North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C., are taking place amid an increasingly acrimonious trade war with the United States, and with MPs set to return to the House of Commons in three weeks for the fall sitting. The governing Liberals, meanwhile, currently hold 170 seats, after a series of resignations in recent months. They need 172 seats to keep their majority government. With a majority government, the Liberals could hold onto power until 2029 and the end of the parliamentary session without the risk of being toppled by the opposition, because the numbers are on their side during votes of confidence in the House. Though, tonight’s results won’t be the last test for the parties, as Prime Minister Mark Carney still has several other byelections to call, with four other seats still vacant and two other MPs expected to resign soon. According to Elections Canada, about 39,500 people have already voted in advance polls across the three ridings. Here’s what you need to know about the three byelections happening Monday. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que. The race in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., could see the seat flip from the Conservatives to either the Bloc Quebecois or the Liberals, and has been considered a riding to watch in these byelections because of the close margin of victory in last year’s general election. The vote is to replace the seat vacated by Conservative Richard Martel, who’s held it since a 2018 byelection, and was appointed by Carney to the Senate early last month. In 2025, Martel narrowly won the riding with 34.1 per cent of the vote. The Bloc and Liberals followed closely behind, each with 31 per cent of the vote, and only about 1,500 votes between them. In the running are Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a lawyer and professor; Liberal Daniel Gobeil, a local farmer and past chair of the Quebec Dairy Producers association, and Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé, who works for the regional county municipality. Also in the running are Raphaël Émond for the NDP and Nathe Perrone for the Greens. In an interview with CTV News last month, former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said while the race is anyone’s game, it could be “enormously problematic” for the Conservatives if the seat flips to the Liberals. “If the Liberals leapfrog from third to first, and the Conservative slide from first to third, that’s going to be a real problem,” Moore said. “Certainly for (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre, you have to explain.” Beaches–East York, Ont. In Beaches–East York, Ont., candidates are vying for a seat that’s largely considered a Liberal stronghold. Aside from the four-year period from 2011–2015 when it was held by former NDP leader Jack Layton, Liberals have led in the riding since 1997. And, it was the seat of now-former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith from 2015 until he resigned early last month after a failed run at the Ontario Liberal leadership. Erskine-Smith won last year’s general election with 67.7 per cent of the vote, handily beating out the Conservatives at 23.5 per cent and the NDP with 6.9 per cent. In the running for the seat now are Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz, who previously served as Erskine-Smith’s constituency office manager; Conservative Jim Syrbos, a local coffee shop owner; NDP Shannon Devine, a union and labour advocate, and Green Bruce Livesey, a former TTC driver. North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C. The North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C., riding is another that has been held by the Liberals since 2015 and is widely expected to stay that way. Candidates are running to replace longtime Jonathan Wilkinson, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the European Union in the spring. In a letter posted online at the time, Wilkinson said the decision was “not easy” and that he is taking on the role to “serve Canada.” Wilkinson had been a Liberal MP since 2015 and held several cabinet positions under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, including minister of environment and climate change and minister of energy and natural resources, but was not named to Carney’s cabinet. Wilkinson won in last year’s general election with 59.8 per cent of the vote, compared to the Conservatives with 33.7 per cent and the NDP with 4.2 per cent. Running to replace Wilkinson are Liberal Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to Carney; Conservative Stephen Curran, a lawyer who also ran in the riding during last year’s general election; NDP Stephen Tweedale, a community activist and organizer, and Green Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist. The riding has largely voted with the government for decades, held by Conservatives when former prime minister Stephen Harper was in office, and flipping to the Liberals when Trudeau formed government. With files from CTV News’ Rachel Aiello
