Super El Niño is underway. What does that mean for Canadians

Environment Canada (ECCC) says a super El Niño is expected to emerge and warm the Pacific Ocean by June, and the odds of extreme weather in Quebec is high.

Every few years, the weather phenomenon known as “El Nino” starts to be felt in different parts of the world. This year however, a “super El Niño” is expected.

So, what does that mean, and how will it impact the weather in Canada? CTVNews.ca spoke to two weather experts to learn more.

What is a super El Niño?

According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño is a global climate phenomenon that shakes up weather patterns around the world.

Kent Moore, professor of physics at the University of Toronto, explains that the event usually happens every two to four years, when the warmest water in the tropical Pacific intensifies as it moves eastward.

“The shift where the warm water is starts now,” he told CTV News. “El Niños typically peaks in the Northern Hemisphere winters.”

El Niño is measured by the magnitude of this warming. However, a super El Niño occurs any time it’s above 2 C. The forecast peak this year is estimated to be about 3.5 C, which means it is a super El Niño.

How would a super El Niño be felt in Canada?

A super El Niño event tends to bring warmer winters across Canada, Moore explained.

“Everything is supercharged,” he said. “Everything’s bigger. So the warmth will be higher than during a usual event.”

Environment and Climate Change Canada climatologist David Phillips said the super El Niño from 2015-2016, for example, was one of the warmest winters in 80 years.

“It really loads the dice to give you a milder kind of winter across the country, from coast to coast,” he said.

What impacts does a super El Niño have on the environment?

Phillips said that we’re already beginning to see some marine effects of super El Niño in Canada, like a species of dolphin spotted in British Columbia, which aren’t normally found there.

“We often see fish patterns change,” he said. “New species appear that you’ve never seen before, so it’s a great sightseeing kind of adventure for people to spot marine life, and fish species that they normally don’t see at those particular latitudes.”