Liberal leads, Conservative surges, Bloc strongholds?: Quebec ridings to watch

Political analyst Raphael Melancon breaks down the leaders' final pitches as the election campaign enters its final days.

With the federal election fast approaching, polls are showing a clearer picture of how Quebec’s 78 seats will shade, colour-wise.

It looks likely that the province will be majority Liberal red, mostly at the expense of the baby blue Bloc Québécois.

Nevertheless, the dark blue of the Conservatives has gained ground in the past week.

*All numbers were updated on April 25, 2025.

As of Friday, poll analysis site 338Canada.com had the Liberals ahead in 41 ridings (down two from a week prior), the Bloc ahead in 24 (up two), the Conservatives at 12 (same), and the NDP with one (same).

Last week, there were nine ridings listed as “toss-ups,” and there are now seven: three with the Liberals slightly ahead, three for the Bloc and one for the Conservatives.

Five of the toss-ups from last week are now considered “likely” or “leaning” towards a party.

Additionally, there are three new toss-ups, including two that may go from Bloc to Conservative.

Here are the seven toss-up ridings, and those which are now considered likely or leaning:

North Shore and beyond

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

Liberal candidate and first female grand chief of the Quebec’s Cree Nation Mandy Gull-Masty’s lead has slipped.

Polls are now favouring Bloc incumbent Sylvie Bérubé in the massive riding encompassing over 850,000 square kilometres of Quebec’s north.

The two candidates hold 34 per cent of the vote projection in the Quebec riding that went Bloc-NDP-Bloc before this year’s election.

Odds of winning last week: Liberals, 55 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 54 per cent.

Berthier—Maskinongé

The only three-horse race in the province is now a solid “likely” for the Bloc’s Yves Perron (37 vote projection).

Support for Liberal Stéphane Bilodeau (19 per cent) and NDP Ruth Ellen Brosseau (26 per cent) dropped significantly since April 17.

The riding on the North Shore west of Trois-Rivières looks to stay with the Bloc.

Odds of winning last week: Bloc, 54 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 98 per cent.

Jonquière

The riding may turn dark blue as Conservative candidate Fann Boulanger (33 per cent) makes a charge on Bloc incumbent Mario Simard (35 per cent).

The riding in the province’s northeast has been a Bloc stronghold since 1993, with the exception of the NDP orange wave from 2015 to 2019.

Odds of winning: Bloc, 64 per cent.

Les Pays-d’en-Haut

Whoever wins here will be the first in its history, as the riding was created in 2023 to accommodate the population growth in the Laurentians and Lanaudière regions

Polls were even a week ago, but are now leaning in favour of Bloc candidate Arian Charbonneau (39 per cent) over Liberal Timothy Watchorn (35 per cent).

Odds of winning last week: Liberal, 53 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 79 per cent.

Montmorency—Charlevoix

In the second of two toss-ups that may go from baby to dark blue, Bloc incumbent Caroline Desbiens (34 per cent) has dropped below Conservative candidate Gabriel Hardy (35 per cent).

Former Conservative MP Sylvie Boucher won the riding in 2015 under Stephen Harper’s team after NDP Jonathan Tremblay won in 2011 with Jack Layton.

Odds of winning: Conservatives, 57 per cent.

Repentigny

Bloc candidate Patrick Bonin (43 per cent) has pulled ahead of Liberal Pierre Richard Thomas (38 per cent).

The Bloc stronghold, represented by Monique Pauzé since 2015, is now leaning that way again.

The 73-year-old Pauzé said in 2024 that she would not be seeking another term.

Since its creation in 1997, the Bloc has won every election except for the NDP orange wave of 2011.

Odds of winning last week: Bloc, 52 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 81 per cent.

Terrebonne

Bloc incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné won her first election in 2021.

The party that has held the seat northeast of Montreal since 1993.

Polls show her up (41 per cent) on Liberal Tatiana Auguste (36 per cent).

Provincially, the Parti Québécois won the seat back in a byelection from the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in March.

Odds of winning last week: Bloc, 60 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 77 per cent

Trois-Rivières

Liberal Caroline Desrochers (30 per cent) and Bloc candidate René Villemure (30 per cent) are neck-and-neck with Conservative Yves Levesque (30 per cent) in Trois-Rivières.

The Liberals are hoping to turn the riding red for the first time since 1984.

The riding has been represented by Liberal, Progressive Conservative, Bloc and NDP candidates since its creation.

Odds of winning last week: Liberal, 57 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Liberal, 39 per cent.

Montreal’s South Shore

La Prairie—Atateken

The newly created seat on Montreal’s South Shore combines the former Brossard-La Prairie and Châteauguay—Saint-Constant ridings.

Liberal Jacques Ramsay’s lead has slipped, and he is now in a dead heat with Bloc incumbent Alain Therrien at 39 per cent apiece in vote projection.

Ramsay is a former Quebec coroner who worked on the inquiry into COVID-19 deaths in long-term care facilities.

Therrien was the MNA for Sanguinet for the Parti Québécois from 2012 to 2018 before hopping to federal politics.

The previous editions of the riding bounced between the Bloc (2019-25 and 1993-1997), Liberals (2015-2019 and 1968-1984) and Progressive Conservatives (1867-1887, 1891-1896 and 1984-1993).

Odds of winning last week: Liberal, 65 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 53 per cent.

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

The riding is now in the toss-up category with Liberal Natilien Joseph (41 per cent) slightly ahead of Bloc incumbent and former actor Denis Trudel (40 per cent).

The Quebec riding has been primarily Bloc since 1990, and bounced between Liberal (1953-1958 and 1963-1984) and Progressive Conservatives (1958-1963 and 1984-1990) candidates before that.

Odds of winning: Liberal, 55 per cent.

Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères

Bloc incumbent Xavier Barsalou-Duval has pulled solidly ahead (42 per cent) of Liberal Laurent de Casanove (35 per cent), and it looks like the baby blue shade will remain in the region southeast of Montreal.

Barsalou-Duval has represented the riding since it was created in 2015.

Odds of winning last week: Bloc, 62 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 89 per cent.

Saint-Jean

Bloc incumbent Christine Normandin looks safe (38 per cent) ahead of Liberal Patrick Agbokou (33 per cent).

The riding that stretches along the Richelieu River, south of Montreal to the border, was created in 1966 and was held by the Bloc from 1993 to 2011.

Odds of winning last week: Bloc, 68 per cent.

Odds of winning this week: Bloc, 83 per cent.

Recent history of Quebec elections

In 2021, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won 34 seats (one fewer than in 2019); Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc won 33 (one fewer); Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives won 10 (same as 2019), and the NDP’s Alexandre Boulerice held the Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie seat.

A swing for the Liberals in 2025 would be the first major gain for a party in the province since 2019, when the Bloc went from 10 to 32 seats, mostly at the expense of the NDP, which went from 16 to one.

Here is the Quebec seat count for the past 20 years: